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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.3% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
"PHI +136 ML +22.7 EV: market -165 juice ignores omega even line + MC 10.7-10.6 tie proj"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1596869 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 569 trades Kalshi: 327 trades Largest: $35449
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +165.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
41.5%
ML
141 / -141

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -179 / 147 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -170 / 153 -
Value Line - -175 / 135 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (126) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 134 / -134 -162 / 162 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Jonathan Bowlan
(RP) 15-day IL — Bowlan (groin) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Saturday.
15-Day-IL
J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) 10-day IL — The Phillies placed Realmuto on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to back spasms, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — The Phillies transferred Lazar (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Saturday to record his fifth save of the season in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out

Atlanta Braves

R
Raisel Iglesias
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Iglesias (shoulder) has yet to resume throwing, but the club is happy with his progress and hopes to activate him May 5 when he's first eligible, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta will place Dodd on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a back strain, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) struck out eight and permitted one hit and one walk over 4.1 scoreless innings in his rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Gwinnett.
15-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) is slated to move his rehab assignment from High-A Rome to Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Saturday that Kim (finger) has resumed taking batting practice, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jonathan Bowlan 15-Day-IL
J.T. Realmuto 10-Day-IL
Raisel Iglesias 15-Day-IL
Dylan Dodd 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 60% Lean Calibrated
"PHI +136 ML +22.7 EV: market -165 juice ignores omega even line + MC 10.7-10.6 tie proj"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: ATL -1.5 (-165) | ML: ATL -165 / PHI +136 | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+22.7 EV on PHI ML +136 (our 52% away win prob >> 42.4% breakeven); heavy juice on ATL kills home value
FULL ANALYSIS
Market overjuices ATL -165 ML/run line despite omega even spread, MC 46.7% home win, and 12-12 expected scores—value on PHI +136 ML (+22.7 EV at our 52% prob). Sharp spread home signal + extreme whale home ($1.5M vol 82%) contradict but low model agreement flags ATL regression risk. Over 8.0 lean as models project absurd 24+ totals vs tight market.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 15.1% sharp edge on spread home + +48.8% EV home run line per Pinnacle de-vig vs retail
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
+5.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+22.7 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Phillies 136
  • Our 52% PHI win prob (MC 45% away + omega even) >> 42.4% breakeven at +136
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 + MC home cover +0.0 at 46.7% vs market -1.5 implies ~55% PHI +1.5 cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 + decomposed 4511 absurdly high vs market 8.0 signals massive overreaction to low total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies +2.2: Omega 0.0 vs -2.2 market, MC home cover 35% (+19 EV), early CLV +2.2 pts
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