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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +36.2% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants None
"Sharp money on Giants spread but negative ML EV; total over unreliable due to missing data."
EV / $100
-2.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+1.3%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants -1.5
60%
TOTAL over 11.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 16.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1484155 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 487 trades Kalshi: 132 trades Largest: $44325
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +125.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +11.5
Win Prob
34.4%
ML
191 / -191

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 104 / -124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 108 / -120 -
Value Line - 106 / -132 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-300) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-139) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -131 / 131 114 / -114 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against Colorado, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Mahle
(SP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Mahle on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Wednesday, due to a left hamstring strain, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Heliot Ramos
(LF) 10-day IL — Ramos received a PRP injection in his injured right quadriceps and will be shut down for one week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — Sanmartin (hip) tossed a scoreless inning in Triple-A Sacramento's 11-6 win over Sugar Land on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) earned a hold in Triple-A Sacramento's 6-5 loss to Round Rock on Wednesday, allowing one hit in a scoreless inning.
60-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rockies recalled Herrera from Triple-A Albuquerque on Monday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak is not in the starting lineup Thursday night against Arizona.
10-Day-IL
B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — The Rockies announced that Doyle is considered day-to-day after suffering a left oblique contusion during Tuesday's 10-0 loss to the Rangers, Manny Randhawa of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 15-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Victor Vodnik
(RP) 15-day IL — Vodnik (1-2) picked up the win in Friday's 9-7 extra-innings victory over the Phillies, walking one and striking out two over two scoreless, no-hit innings.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI on Saturday against Atlanta.
10-Day-IL
J
Jimmy Herget
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rockies reinstated Herget (personal) from the bereavement list Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-300)
Total Over 11.0
Key Injuries
Harrison Bader 10-Day-IL
Tyler Mahle 15-Day-IL
Welinton Herrera 15-Day-IL
Jose Quintana 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

+-2.08 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 55% Lean
"Sharp money on Giants spread but negative ML EV; total over unreliable due to missing data."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 53%
Edge +1.3%
Line Movement
Open SF -125 / COL +104, Total 11.0
Current SF -125 / COL +104, Total 11.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Coors Field high altitude Injuries to both teams (Rockies -7.8%, Giants -6.9%) No starting pitcher data available Data quality degraded (68%)
Slight probability edge (1.3pp) but negative EV due to vig on -125 odds. Not a recommended moneyline bet.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money favors Giants on the spread with a 16.5% edge, but the moneyline carries negative EV at -125. The Bayesian model suggests a high over probability, but missing pitcher data and unreliable Omega model make totals risky. Whale money on the Rockies adds uncertainty. Lean Giants spread if line is -1.5, but pass on moneyline and total due to negative EV and data quality concerns.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money favors Giants on spread (16.5% edge) and slight ML edge. Whale signals contradict but are unreliable (top profit $0).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
-2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants -1.5
+5.0 EV 60% 1.0u
TOTAL over 11.0
+5.0 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
San Francisco Giants -125
  • Bayesian posterior 54.4% vs de-vigged 53.1% gives slight probability edge but negative EV due to vig
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
San Francisco Giants -1.5
  • Sharp money signal strong on spread (16.5% edge) suggests value on Giants covering
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 11.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 65.2% suggests high over probability, but model reliability is low due to degraded data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants -2.2 spread: 17.5% sharp edge with RLM, +31.9% EV on Bovada — Rockies injuries and Coors Field pitching woes create margin for cover
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