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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +11.3% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 2.2
"Tigers +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV): OMEGA even spread + extreme whales fade juiced Royals"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
47%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 6.8% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$381672 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 275 trades Kalshi: 34 trades Largest: $17949
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
36.8%
ML
172 / -172

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -132 / 110 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 123 -
Value Line - -141 / 114 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 1.5 (115)
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-114)
Market Consensus -1.5 (152) - -
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -128 / 128 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

K
Kerry Carpenter
(RF) day-to-day — Carpenter was removed from Saturday's game against the Royals due to a left shoulder injury, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize (adductor) threw a bullpen session Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) will throw a live batting practice session Saturday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Vest (forearm) received a cortisone injection Friday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Framber Valdez
(SP) Suspension — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
suspension
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

C
Cole Ragans
(SP) 15-day IL — The Royals placed Ragans on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to May 7, due to a left elbow impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — The Royals transferred McArthur (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Total Over 1.5
Spread -1.5 (152)
Key Injuries
Kerry Carpenter Day-To-Day
Casey Mize 15-Day-IL
Cole Ragans 15-Day-IL
Anthony Simonelli Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 56% Lean
"Tigers +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV): OMEGA even spread + extreme whales fade juiced Royals"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.3%
Line Movement
Current Royals -2.2 / Tigers +2.2 | O/U 8.5 | Royals -141 / Tigers +123
Movement No significant movement detected
+5.2pp calibrated edge on Tigers ML; +6.3pp on spread cover; +15.2pp over total
FULL ANALYSIS
Models crush Royals -2.2 with 56.3% Tigers cover posterior (+6.3pp EV) vs OMEGA even spread; extreme $155k whales + prediction mkt 52.5% away confirm sharp fade. Total 8.5 obliterated by 65% over posterior, MC ~19.7 score, OMEGA 22.5. Equal injuries, no situational edges but Bayesian + MC converge away.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $155k (89% on away), prediction markets -10.5% divergence to away, sharp ML edge 1.0% away + strong spread divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+4.1 EV 47%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 47%
Detroit Tigers 123
  • Bayesian posterior 46.7% vs market 41.5% (+5.2pp); exceeds breakeven 44.8%
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Detroit Tigers 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Tigers cover +2.2 vs market 50%; OMEGA spread 0.0 shows 2.2pt edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total 22.5 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV): OMEGA even spread + extreme whales fade juiced Royals
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