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NFL
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns
Browns
6 - 27
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK ALIGNED
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
"Steelers -3.5 at +EV vs a road-flat Browns spot on key number 3; under 38.5 holds modest value at 37.5 model total."
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+2.3%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Steelers None
58%
TOTAL under 38.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-4.0
Edge: -0.5
Total
37.5
Edge: -1.0
Win Prob
67.6%
ML
-208 / 208
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -3.5, just past 3. 14.8% of NFL games land on 3. If your book offers -3.0, take it at up to -125.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -195 / 165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -201 / 179 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus -3.5 (-105) ↓ - -
Value Line -17.5 (-132) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 39.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 38.5 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 -191 / 191 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Browns

H
Harold Fannin Jr.
(TE) active — Fannin brought in 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards in the Browns' 27-6 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Active
M
Maliek Collins
(DT) active — Collins (elbow) has returned to Sunday's game against the Steelers, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports.
Active
T
Tyson Campbell
(CB) active
Active
D
Deshaun Watson
(QB) active — Watson (undisclosed) returned to Sunday's game in Pittsburgh, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports.
Active
D
Daniel Thomas
(S) active — Thomas (ankle) is active against the Steelers on Sunday, Kelsey Russo of the Browns' official site reports.
Active
D
Dillon Gabriel
(QB) out — Gabriel (coach's decision) is inactive but will be the emergency third quarterback against the Steelers on Sunday, Kelsey Russo of the Browns' official site reports.
Out
M
Myles Harden
(CB) active — Harden (hamstring) is active for Sunday's game against the Steelers, Kelsey Russo of the Browns' official site reports.
Active
T
Taylen Green
(QB) out — inactive
Out
N
Noah Igbinoghene
(CB) out — inactive
Out
J
Justin Jefferson
(LB) out — inactive
Out
P
Parker Brailsford
(C) out — inactive
Out
A
Audric Estime
(RB) out — inactive
Out
T
Tytus Howard
(OT) active — Howard has cleared the league's concussion protocol and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Steelers, Chris Easterling of the Akron Beacon Journal reports.
Active
C
Carsen Ryan
(TE) active — The Browns elevated Ryan from their practice squad to their active roster Saturday.
Active
M
Mike Hall Jr.
(DT) active — Hall (ankle) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Steelers, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Active
J
Jared Verse
(DE) active — Verse (knee) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Steelers, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Active
C
Carson Schwesinger
(LB) active
Active
M
Mason Graham
(DT) active
Active
E
Elgton Jenkins
(C) active
Active
G
Grant Delpit
(S) active
Active
D
Dylan Sampson
(RB) active — Sampson (knee) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Active
J
Jerry Jeudy
(WR) active — NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reports that the Browns are currently "less likely" to trade Jeudy before the Nov. 10 deadline.
Active
R
Ronnie Hickman
(S) active — Hickman registered 10 tackles (six solo) and a fumble recovery during Sundays' 27-24 win over Tennessee.
Active
Q
Quincy Williams
(LB) active — Williams finished Sunday's 27-24 win over the Titans with 10 tackles (seven solo).
Active
K
Kalia Davis
(DT) Injured Reserve — Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Injured Reserve

Pittsburgh Steelers

J
Jaylen Warren
(RB) active — Warren rushed 17 times for 143 yards and a touchdown and brought in one of two targets for no gain in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Active
W
Will Howard
(QB) out — Howard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Steelers' emergency third quarterback against the Browns on Sunday.
Out
B
Ben Skowronek
(WR) out — Skowronek (calf) is inactive against the Browns on Sunday.
Out
D
Doneiko Slaughter
(CB) out — inactive
Out
E
Eli Heidenreich
(RB) out — inactive
Out
B
Brandin Echols
(CB) out — inactive
Out
D
Drew Allar
(QB) out — inactive
Out
B
Brandon Johnson
(WR) active — The Steelers elevated Johnson from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.
Active
B
Brandon Smith
(WR) active — The Steelers signed Smith off the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.
Active
A
Alex Highsmith
(LB) active
Active
J
Jalen Ramsey
(CB) active
Active
P
Payton Wilson
(LB) active — Wilson totaled six tackles (three solo) and an interception during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday.
Active
P
Patrick Queen
(LB) active — Queen compiled 10 tackles (seven solo), including 1.0 sacks, during Pittsburgh's win over the Saints on Sunday.
Active
G
Germie Bernard
(WR) active — Bernard caught three of five targets for 27 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints.
Active
D
Darnell Washington
(TE) active — Washington caught his lone target for a four-yard touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints in Paris.
Active
T
Terell Smith
(CB) active
Active
P
Pat Freiermuth
(TE) active — Freiermuth caught two of four targets for 20 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints.
Active
C
Chris Boswell
(PK) active — Boswell made each of his three field-goal attempts and his lone extra-point try in a 16-10 victory over the Saints on Sunday in Paris.
Active
D
DK Metcalf
(WR) active — Metcalf two of six targets for 56 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints.
Active
R
Rico Dowdle
(RB) active — Dowdle carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards in Sunday's 16-10 win over New Orleans.
Active
A
Aaron Rodgers
(QB) active — Rodgers completed 19 of 30 passes for 212 passes and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-10 win over the Saints. He added six yards on three carries.
Active
D
DeShon Elliott
(S) active — Elliott (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris.
Active
M
Mason Rudolph
(QB) active — Rudolph is active for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports.
Active
T
T.J. Watt
(LB) active — Watt (calf) practiced fully Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Saints.
Active
S
Sebastian Joseph-Day
(DT) Injured Reserve — Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports.
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
Browns
6
-
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
27
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
64% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-115) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T07:10:18.831388 UTC

OMEGA scoring model+team strength line is -4.0 vs market -3.5, expected score 20.9-16.6, and Pittsburgh is 3-0 at home vs a Cleveland side whose QB room has the listed injury.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Steelers 64% Sharp Lean
"Steelers -3.5 at +EV vs a road-flat Browns spot on key number 3; under 38.5 holds modest value at 37.5 model total."
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +2.3%
Line Movement
Current Pittsburgh -3.5 (-115/-105), total 38.5, ML -198/+164
At -115, breakeven is 53.5%; 56.8% model probability implies roughly +6.2 per $100 on the Pittsburgh spread. The -198 moneyline breakeven (66.4%) nearly exhausts the edge, and the under at +101 carries modest value.
FULL ANALYSIS
Both teams sit at 5-2, but the home split is 3-0 Steelers vs 2-2 Browns. Cleveland's QB room is hit - both listed passers are out - while OMEGA's Poisson+ELO line of -4.0 shades past the market 3.5 and a 37.5 decomposed total prices under the quoted 38.5. Small but positive spreads leverage, near-nil moneyline juice, and a modest under lean sum to a thin, watchable game; not a confident play in any tier.
SHARP MONEY
No bet/money split or line-movement data supplied; OMEGA line (-4.0) shading past the market (-3.5) is the only directional signal.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
+6.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Steelers None
+1.7 EV 58%
TOTAL under 38.5
+5.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Pittsburgh Steelers -198
  • Win-prob 67.6% vs breakeven 66.4% leaves nearly no margin; this quote confirms the spread as leverage, not the juice
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
  • OMEGA scoring model+team strength line is -4.0 vs market -3.5, expected score 20.9-16.6, and Pittsburgh is 3-0 at home vs a Cleveland side whose QB room has the listed injury
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 38.5
  • OMEGA decomposed-ratings total of 37.5 vs a 38.5 market for a scoring model expected 20.9-16.6 (37.5 combined) supports the under
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Steelers -3.5 at -110 with OMEGA at -4.0 and 14.8% push risk removed by the extra half point; under 39.5 as a small lean on a 37.5-38.4 modeled total
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