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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 0
"ATL spread +270 (45% EV) on 17% sharp divergence vs Pinnacle fair -154; omega even spread + ARI 5 injuries"
EV / $100
+45.4
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
64%
TOTAL over 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
28.1%
ML
256 / -256

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -105 / -105 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-167) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-106)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG -154 / 154 -100 / -100 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) caught three innings of a simulated game with High-A Rome on Wednesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chris Sale
(SP) day-to-day — Sale (illness) may not be in attendance for Monday night's contest against the Diamondbacks, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) will throw a bullpen session in Phoenix on Friday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
D
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Hernandez (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday but has yet to make his Grapefruit League debut, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta placed Young (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 10-day IL — Lawlar was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist Friday and will be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Kelly (back) is scheduled to start for Triple-A Reno on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-167)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
AJ Smith-Shawver 60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Jordan Lawlar 10-Day-IL
A.J. Puk 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+45.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 65% Sharp Lean
"ATL spread +270 (45% EV) on 17% sharp divergence vs Pinnacle fair -154; omega even spread + ARI 5 injuries"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current ARI -118 / ATL +102 / Total 9.5
Movement No movement data
ATL ML +102 offers slim +EV vs fair 50/50; Bovada spread +270 = +45% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (39.3% implied)
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — MLB 115-103 (N=218); 11-7 vs ARI but 6-11 vs ATL; player props 3% hit rate (cap 60)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model projects dead even 12-12 scores (0.0 spread) vs market ARI -118 juice; sharp action hammered ATL spread (+270 Bovada = 45% EV vs Pinnacle fair). ARI missing Gurriel/Smith/Lawlar thins lineup while Sale DTD caps ATL rotation; yesterday H2H ATL ML+over both cashed. Totals suspect (model 24.0 absurd) but ML lean tier profitable 53.8%.
SHARP MONEY
17.0% spread divergence favoring ATL (sharp implied 39.3% vs retail 79.6%); +45% EV on Bovada spread away; recent H2H ATL ML hit yesterday
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 0
+45.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+2.0 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+0.8 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Atlanta Braves -121
  • Omega ML -256 implies even matchup but market overprices Atlanta; weak 0.6% sharp edge on home countered by model
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Atlanta Braves 2.2
  • Sharp 16.1% spread divergence (+250 away vs Pinnacle fair 39.5% prob) with omega spread 0.0 vs market 2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 9.0
  • Omega total 24.0 wildly inflated vs market 9.0; totals losing across tiers (33-51%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Atlanta spread +38% EV on 16.1% sharp divergence (Bovada +250 vs fair 153); omega even matchup ignored by market
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