Home › Bundesliga › SC Freiburg @ Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund -1.5
"Dortmund home 19-7-4 vs Freiburg road woes, +3.1 EV on -1.5 cover"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
72%
Edge
+22.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Borussia Dortmund None
57%
TOTAL over 3.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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SC Freiburg

Borussia Dortmund

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-1.1
Moneyline
BOR 117 / SC -117
Win Probability
46% - 54%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
SC Freiburg @ Borussia Dortmund
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Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

SC Freiburg @ Borussia Dortmund

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Borussia Dortmund 60% Lean Raw
"Dortmund home 19-7-4 vs Freiburg road woes, +3.1 EV on -1.5 cover"
72% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 72%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +22.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Borussia Dortmund -1.5 (-145); Total: 3.5 (-110); ML: Dortmund -255 / Freiburg +550
Movement No significant line movement detected
Marginal EV on Dortmund ML due to juice exceeding breakeven by <1%; prefer spread for better pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Dortmund's 19-7-4 record dominates Freiburg's 12-7-11 mark, projecting 2.1 goal home win margin for -1.5 cover at 61% our prob. No situational edges or injuries, but Bayesian at 72% home win with 0.2% edge confirms efficiency. Poor data caps confidence; totals losing historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Borussia Dortmund -1.5
+3.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Borussia Dortmund None
+0.2 EV 57%
TOTAL over 3.5
+1.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Borussia Dortmund -255
  • -255 exceeds -250 threshold (breakeven 71.8%, our prob 72% but <5% edge required)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Borussia Dortmund -1.5
  • Dortmund 19-7-4 record projects 2.1 goal avg margin at home vs Freiburg's 12-7-11 road struggles
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 3.5
  • Bundesliga avg 3.2 goals/game + Dortmund home scoring tilt projects 3.8 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dortmund 3-0 DDN history + home edge = +1.8 EV on -1.5 (-105) vs juiced ML
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