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Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers
"Tigers +110 ML (+4.55 EV): 51% model prob vs -132 chalk, Padres bullpen 4-deep IL + recent H2H model win"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers +3.0
63%
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Detroit Tigers

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -102 / -106 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-176) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (-107)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers reassigned Effross (oblique) to minor-league camp Wednesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Phil Bickford
(RP) day-to-day — Bickford was shut down from throwing Tuesday due to a triceps strain, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session of spring training Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) out — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — San Diego placed Musgrove (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Adam (quadriceps) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Canning (Achilles) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports Saturday that Song will open the 2026 regular season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-176)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Trey Sweeney 10-Day-IL
Bailey Horn 15-Day-IL
Matt Waldron 15-Day-IL
Yu Darvish Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres

+4.55 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 66% Sharp Lean
"Tigers +110 ML (+4.55 EV): 51% model prob vs -132 chalk, Padres bullpen 4-deep IL + recent H2H model win"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Current Padres -3.0 / Tigers +3.0 | O/U N/A | ML Padres -132 / Tigers +110
Movement No movement data (early season game)
+4.55 EV on Tigers ML at +110; model sees 5.9% prob edge vs vig
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — 1-0 vs Tigers, 1-1 vs Padres; H2H Tigers ML hit 3 days ago
FULL ANALYSIS
Tigers +110 ML offers +4.55 EV with model at 51% vs 47.6% implied—recent 1-0 model hit in this H2H. Padres bullpen gutted (Adam/Matsui/Waldron IL) while Tigers day-to-days are depth arms. Model total 7.4 runs undervalues under 8.0; early season inefficiency + depleted pens = low-scoring fade favorite.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers
+4.5 EV 66% 1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers +3.0
+2.1 EV 63% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
+1.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Detroit Tigers +116
  • Model projects 52% Tigers win probability vs 46% implied (+5.8% edge) after hitting Tigers ML in 3/26 H2H
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Detroit Tigers
  • Omega model spread -0.8 favoring Tigers; covers 68% in 1000 sims with Padres bullpen depleted
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • Model total 7.4 runs with depleted pitching staffs both sides (10 total pitcher injuries)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers ML +116 (52% model vs 46% implied, +4.8 EV) after 3/26 H2H hit; depleted pitching both sides → under 8.0
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