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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.0% EV
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs +1.5
"Cubs ML (+3.2% EV) and over 8.5 (+24.5% EV) both show value per Bayesian fusion and sharp money alignment."
EV / $100
+48.0
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+1.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Chicago Cubs None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$936192 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 415 trades Kalshi: 53 trades Largest: $32217
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +112.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
33.0%
ML
203 / -203

Player Props Engine

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Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -109 / -111 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -103 / -107 -
Value Line - 100 / -122 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-420) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-170) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value -160 / 160 102 / -102 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyd (knee) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edward Cabrera
(SP) 15-day IL — Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Shaw
(RF) 10-day IL — Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Riley Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

N
Nathan Church
(LF) 10-day IL — Church (shoulder) received clearance from a specialist Tuesday to start a plyometric and strengthening program, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — Urias' (elbow) resumption of a throwing program is considered imminent, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — The Cardinals are eyeing June 1 as a target date for Nootbaar's (heels) activation from the 60-day injured list, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-420)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Matthew Boyd 15-Day-IL
Edward Cabrera 15-Day-IL
Nathan Church 10-Day-IL
Ramon Urias 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

+48.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago Cubs 63% Sharp Lean
"Cubs ML (+3.2% EV) and over 8.5 (+24.5% EV) both show value per Bayesian fusion and sharp money alignment."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 53%
Edge +1.7%
Line Movement
Current Home -108 / Away -112, Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected
calibrated shows away undervalued by ~1.7pp, yielding small positive EV.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion favors Cubs on moneyline (54.5% vs 52.8% market) and over 8.5 (65.2% vs 50%). Sharp money and +EV strongly support Cubs on the run line. Data quality is degraded, so confidence is tempered, but clear edges exist across multiple signals.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 17.8% on spread favoring away; +EV analysis shows +48% EV on away spread.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago Cubs +1.5
+48.0 EV 63% 1u
MONEYLINE Chicago Cubs None
+3.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Chicago Cubs -112
  • Bayesian fusion gives away 54.5% vs market 52.8% implicit, yielding +3.2% EV
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Chicago Cubs 1.5
  • Sharp money and +EV analysis show strong edge on Cubs run line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior over probability 65.2% vs market 50% implied, strong edge on over
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cubs spread at +260 on Bovada is a +50% EV gift — sharp money 19.2% divergent, whales betting $131K, and the market hasn't caught up yet.
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