Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB

Baltimore Orioles

Orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates

Full Game Analysis

MLB

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles -1.5

"BAL ML -122 +3.2 EV (58% model >55% breakeven) behind O'Hearn .421 vs PIT injuries"

EV / $100

+2.1

Win Prob

58%

Edge

+8.0%

Size

MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None

67%

TOTAL under 8.5

62%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Baltimore Orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Market Consensus	-	109 / -120 ↑	-
Market Consensus	1.5 (-156)	-	-
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 8.5 (-107)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG	-144 / 144	114 / -114	O/U -100 / -100

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Zach Eflin

(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Eflin (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.

15-Day-IL

Jordan Westburg

(3B) 60-day IL — The Orioles transferred Westburg (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.

60-Day-IL

Andrew Kittredge

(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.

15-Day-IL

Jackson Holliday

(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) has gone 0-for-6 with a walk and four strikeouts through his first two rehab appearances with Triple-A Norfolk.

10-Day-IL

Maverick Handley

(C) day-to-day — Handley was removed in the bottom of the fifth inning of Triple-A Norfolk's 6-2 loss to Nashville on Sunday after being hit in the left ankle by a pitch, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.

Day-To-Day

Richard Guasch

(SP) day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Luis Vazquez

(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Hans Crouse

(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.

Day-To-Day

Keagan Gillies

(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Keegan Akin

(RP) 10-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Akin (adductor) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.

10-Day-IL

Heston Kjerstad

(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles placed Kjerstad on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right hamstring strain.

10-Day-IL

Felix Bautista

(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Payton Eeles

(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.

Day-To-Day

Colin Selby

(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Oddanier Mosqueda

(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Chris Devenski

(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.

Out

Jared Jones

(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.

60-Day-IL

Anthony Solometo

(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

Day-To-Day

Game Preview

until first pitch

Current Line

Spread 1.5 (-156)

Total Over 8.5

Key Injuries

Zach Eflin 15-Day-IL

Jordan Westburg 60-Day-IL

Oddanier Mosqueda Day-To-Day

Chris Devenski Out

Analysis starts at first pitch

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+2.1 EV

per $100 wagered

Baltimore Orioles 65% Sharp Lean

"BAL ML -122 +3.2 EV (58% model >55% breakeven) behind O'Hearn .421 vs PIT injuries"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 58%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +8.0%

Line Movement

Current BAL -122 ML / PIT +102 ML / Total 8.5

Movement No movement data

Baltimore ML -122 offers +3.2 EV at our 58% prob vs 55% implied breakeven

Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — Based on N=139 graded MLB outcomes; reduce 63-72 range due to overconfidence gaps +18-21%

FULL ANALYSIS

BAL -122 with O'Hearn .421 leading into PIT staff missing Jones/Devenski; model 58% win prob vs 55% breakeven creates +3.2 EV. Total 8.5 model 9.5 but Pirates Keller 0.00 ERA caps it, tier data shows totals bleeding. Spread -1.5 lean BAL on 5.1-4.4 projection despite no pitcher names.

Recommended Sizing

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD Baltimore Orioles -1.5

+2.1 EV 65% 1u

MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None

+3.2 EV 67% 1u

TOTAL under 8.5

+1.8 EV 62% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

● 64%

Baltimore Orioles -177

Model win prob 63.9% exactly matches -177 implied prob; breakeven 63.9%

SPREAD PICK

○ 55%

Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0

Omega spread at 0.0 but ELO projects Pirates +2.5 edge from 1560 rating vs 1497

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 55%

UNDER 24.0

Model total 24.0 exactly matches line but MLB totals consistently losing across tiers

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Model even matchup 12-12 but ELO Pirates +2.5 rating edge vs depleted BAL bullpen; 0.0 EV across board

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