Home › Bundesliga › FC Augsburg @ Hamburg SV
Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
Augsburg
Hamburg SV
SV
Hamburg SV
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0.5
"Augsburg +195 ML (48% model vs 33.9% implied, +3.8 EV); superior record overlooked in HSV home dog market"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Augsburg None
65%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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FC Augsburg

Hamburg SV

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
HAM -100 / FC -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
FC Augsburg @ Hamburg SV
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

FC Augsburg @ Hamburg SV

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Augsburg 58% Lean
"Augsburg +195 ML (48% model vs 33.9% implied, +3.8 EV); superior record overlooked in HSV home dog market"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Spread: HSV -0.5 (Home +120 / Away -170), Total: 2.5, ML: Home +130 / Away +195
Movement No movement data
Augsburg ML +195 offers +3.8 EV; breakeven 33.9% vs our 48% proj (exceeds by 14.1%). Spread/pass due to -0.5 juice mismatch.
FULL ANALYSIS
Augsburg's 9-4-14 record undervalued at +195 ML vs HSV's 7-9-11 mediocrity; model projects 48% win prob (1.3-1.1 xG) for 14% edge. Total under 2.5 leans on Bundesliga mid-table avg 2.3 goals (N>200). Spread too juiced at -170 for 0.5-line.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD FC Augsburg 0.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Augsburg None
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+0.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Hamburg SV 120
  • 52% model prob exceeds +120 breakeven (45.5%) by 6.5%; HSV home ML profitable tier historically
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Hamburg SV -0.5
  • Home field + Volksparkstadion edge undervalued vs Augsburg's poor 9-4-14 road-split implied form
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 2.5
  • Bundesliga mid-table clashes average 2.3 goals; totals consistently losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Hamburg ML +120 (52% model vs 45.5% implied) = +6.4 EV; home venue undervalued vs Augsburg road dogs
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