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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1.18
"Omega 24.0 total vs 9.0 market (+15pt overlay) on dual aces-out bullpen game, ARI +1.18 spread value"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
50%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
52%
TOTAL over 9.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
33.8%
ML
196 / -196

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -102 / -118 ↑ -
Bovada 3.0 (-390) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) could begin a rehab assignment with High-A Rome later this week, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) will travel with Atlanta on its road trip, but he remains without a timetable to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
D
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Hernandez (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday but has yet to make his Grapefruit League debut, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta placed Young (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adrian Del Castillo
(C) 10-day IL — Del Castillo (calf) started at catcher and went 0-for-4 with a walk and a run scored in a rehab game for Triple-A Reno on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Kelly (back) is scheduled to start for Triple-A Reno on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-390)
Key Injuries
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Spencer Strider 15-Day-IL
A.J. Puk 60-Day-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 64% Sharp Lean
"Omega 24.0 total vs 9.0 market (+15pt overlay) on dual aces-out bullpen game, ARI +1.18 spread value"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current ATL -118 / ARI -102 (Total 9.0)
Movement No movement data
No ML edge; market efficiency + injury chaos kills value. Omega Poisson shows 12-12 explosion vs market's 9.0 total
Model: 55.8% win rate | n=129 — DDN 6-3 vs ATL, 6-5 vs ARI (N=129 MLB)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson explodes to 24.0 total (12-12 scores) vs market's efficient 9.0—decimated rotations (Strider/Kelly out) force bullpen bloodbath. ARI +1.18 spread value from 0.0 omega line despite Carroll/Gallen carrying thin roster. DDN calibration demands 73%+ for real edge but injuries create exploitable chaos.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 1.18
+3.2 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
-1.8 EV 52%
TOTAL over 9.0
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Arizona Diamondbacks +187
  • Omega ML -187 Atlanta but Poisson shows only 34.9% Arizona win prob matching implied exactly
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Atlanta Braves 0.0
  • ELO projects 1.4pt Braves spread edge over omega_model's 0.0 despite injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 24.0 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 exactly matches expected 24.0 runs but MLB variance favors under at extreme totals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model even 12-12 (24 total) but ELO Braves +1.4pt edge; heavy IL both sides kills spread value, fade extremes
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