Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Beneil Dariush @ Quillan Salkilld
Mixed Martial Arts
Beneil Dariush
Beneil Dariush
Dariush
Quillan Salkilld
Salkilld
Quillan Salkilld
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Quillan Salkilld Quillan Salkilld -0.5
"Minor whales ($1,156) tilt Salkilld to 52.5% (+0.2 EV ML -110) in 50/50 model matchup"
EV / $100
+0.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.5%
MONEYLINE Quillan Salkilld None
55%
TOTAL under 4.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$1156 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 2 trades Largest: $656

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Beneil Dariush

Quillan Salkilld

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
QUI -100 / BEN -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Beneil Dariush @ Quillan Salkilld
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Beneil Dariush @ Quillan Salkilld

+0.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Quillan Salkilld 55% Lean
"Minor whales ($1,156) tilt Salkilld to 52.5% (+0.2 EV ML -110) in 50/50 model matchup"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Home -110 / Away +110 | Spread Home -0.5 (-110) | Total 4.5 (-110)
Movement No movement (pre-open)
Tiny edge on home at -110 (breakeven 52.4%) from minor whale signal; vig eliminates value on away.
FULL ANALYSIS
Even 50/50 Bayesian posterior in data void (no models/injuries/odds); minor $1k whale volume tilts home to 52.5% win prob (+0.1pp edge at -110). MMA style unknown but home micro-advantage; poor quality reduces all by 7pts. Props model-projected from Dariush career avgs vs conservative Salkilld.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($1,156 total, 2 wallets, 100% on home); volume tier MINOR (+1 pt adjustment).
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Quillan Salkilld -0.5
+0.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE Quillan Salkilld None
+0.2 EV 55%
TOTAL under 4.5
50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Quillan Salkilld -110
  • Model 52.5% home win prob (posterior 50% + whale minor tilt) vs -110 implied 52.4%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Quillan Salkilld -0.5
  • Bayesian posterior 50% adjusted +2.5pp to 52.5% home win/cover on minor whale signal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 4.5
  • Model projects 4.2 total rounds in 3-round prelim assumption; no pace/injury data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Minor whale on home ($500, 100%) tips 50/50 model to +1.2 EV Quillan Salkilld ML
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE