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MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.6% EV EARLY VALUE
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 2.2
"Orioles +115 ML overlay vs Omega -192 fair (19% edge), +2.2pt RL value on even model spread"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$683291 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 356 trades Kalshi: 349 trades Largest: $19655
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
34.3%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Engine

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Baltimore Orioles

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 118 -
Value Line - -150 / 120 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (165) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 178 / -178 -124 / 124 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

A
Andrew Kittredge
(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder/paternity) resumed his rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler O'Neill
(RF) 7-day IL — Manager Craig Albernaz said Friday that O'Neill (concussion) needs more time to recover and still has yet to clear protocol, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
7-Day IL
A
Adley Rutschman
(C) 10-day IL — Rutschman (ankle) said Friday that he's progressed to running and going through drills but remains without a firm timetable for return, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (wrist) will resume a rehab assignment with High-A Frederick this weekend, his father -- former big leaguer Matt Holliday -- said Thursday on Cardinal Territory.
10-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
K
Keegan Akin
(RP) 10-day IL — Akin (groin) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles transferred Hiraldo (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Enns on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left foot infection.
15-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Payton Eeles
(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) was charged with two runs on one hit and one walk over an inning of work in his first rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Andrew Kittredge 15-Day-IL
Tyler O'Neill 7-Day IL
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Andrew Walters 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 61% Lean Calibrated
"Orioles +115 ML overlay vs Omega -192 fair (19% edge), +2.2pt RL value on even model spread"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Current Guardians -2.2 / Orioles +2.2 | O/U 8.0 | ML Guardians -135 / Orioles +115
Movement No significant movement detected
+EV on Orioles ML at +115 (breakeven 46.5%, our 53% exceeds by 6.5%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in strong tier; reduce all conf due to N<20 H2H and missing pitchers
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread even at 0.0 and Orioles ML -192 clash with market Guardians -2.2/-135, yielding +2.2pt spread edge and 19% ML overlay on Baltimore. MC sims coinflip (46.1% away win, ~20.7 total) vs low 8.0 line shows over value, but whale extreme home volume and sharp split cap conviction. Equal injuries (-7.5% net) and no pitchers mute situational edges; Bayesian -4.5% away despite low agreement.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 2.2
+4.8 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
+11.0 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Baltimore Orioles 115
  • Omega ML Orioles -192 (65.7% prob) vs market +115 (46.5% implied), 19.2% overlay
SPREAD PICK
● 61%
Baltimore Orioles 2.2
  • Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market Guardians -2.2, +2.2pt edge on Orioles cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • MC projected total ~20.7 (10.3-10.4 scores) vs market 8.0, massive over bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orioles +2.2: Omega 0.0 spread vs mkt -2.2 (+2.2 pts EV) + Bayesian -5.7% edge despite whale home noise
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