Home › La Liga › Villarreal @ Girona
La Liga
Villarreal
Villarreal
Villarreal
Girona
Girona
Girona
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Villarreal Villarreal -0.5
"Villarreal ML -130: 18-4-7 record crushes Girona's 8-10-11 (+4.8 EV, 62% model prob)"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Villarreal None
62%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Villarreal

Girona

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
GIR -100 / VIL -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Villarreal @ Girona
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Villarreal @ Girona

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Villarreal 58% Lean
"Villarreal ML -130: 18-4-7 record crushes Girona's 8-10-11 (+4.8 EV, 62% model prob)"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Spread: Villarreal -0.5 (Away -165 / Home +115); Total: 2.5; ML: Girona +210 / Villarreal -130
Movement No movement data
Positive EV on Villarreal ML at -130; breakeven 56.5%, our model 62% exceeds by 5.5%
FULL ANALYSIS
Villarreal's dominant 18-4-7 record towers over Girona's dismal 8-10-11, creating clear ML value at -130 (our 62% vs 56.5% breakeven). Spread -0.5 playable at low confidence given data voids. Under 2.5 aligns with LaLiga's 2.4 gpg avg and Girona's scoring woes; props capped at 60 due to unvalidated rosters.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Villarreal -0.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Villarreal None
+4.8 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Villarreal -125
  • 60% model prob vs 55.6% implied, +4.4% edge on ML where LaLiga moneylines profitable historically
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Villarreal -0.5
  • Model Poisson projects Villarreal 1.6-1.2 win expectation, covering -0.5 in 62% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • Model projects 2.8 total goals from pace-adjusted xG (both teams top-10 LaLiga pace)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Villarreal ML -125 (+4.8 EV, 60% model vs 55.6% implied) on Poisson edge despite road chalk
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