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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
Detroit Pistons
Pistons
Detroit Pistons
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans
"NO +170 ML w/ +13.5 EV as DET -25% sans Cunningham/Stewart; depleted Pistons 3-12 ATS home faves"
EV / $100
+13.5
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-1.5%
Size
1u
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 +4.5
65%
TOTAL Under 226.5 226.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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New Orleans Pelicans

Detroit Pistons

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -200 / 170 ↑ -
Bovada - - Over 23.5 (235)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans

B
Bryce McGowens
(G) out — McGowens is out for Thursday's game against the Pistons due to a right toe fracture.
Out
T
Trey Murphy III
(F) day-to-day — Murphy is questionable for Thursday's game against the Pistons with right ankle soreness.
Day-To-Day
D
Dejounte Murray
(G) day-to-day — Murray (rest) is questionable for Thursday's game against Detroit.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Pistons

M
Marcus Sasser
(G) out — Sasser (hip) is out for Wednesday's game against the Hawks.
Out
C
Cade Cunningham
(G) out — Cunningham (chest) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Keith Langlois of the Pistons' official site reports.
Out
I
Isaiah Stewart
(F) out — The Pistons announced Tuesday that Stewart has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left calf strain and will be re-evaluated in one week, Eric Vincent of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 23.5
Key Injuries
Bryce McGowens Out
Trey Murphy III Day-To-Day
Marcus Sasser Out
Cade Cunningham Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons

+13.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New Orleans Pelicans 68% Strong
"NO +170 ML w/ +13.5 EV as DET -25% sans Cunningham/Stewart; depleted Pistons 3-12 ATS home faves"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.5%
Line Movement
Current DET -4.5 (-108 / -112) | O/U 226.5 | ML DET -205 / NO +170
Movement No movement data available
+13.5 EV on Pelicans ML at +170; Detroit -25% net rating w/o Cunningham/Stewart per injury impact models
Model: 67.9% win rate | n=28 — Strong recent form (19-9 last 7d, +1.33u) but small team samples
FULL ANALYSIS
Pistons gutted without Cunningham's 24.5 pts/9.9 ast and Stewart's boards—model drops DET win prob to 51.5% (-16% from baseline). NO +4.5 covers 62% in similar injury spots (N=18). Total crushes under w/ missing creators projecting 218 total vs 226.5 line.
SHARP MONEY
Pistons -205 ML despite 3 key injuries (Cunningham 30% usage) vs NO only minor day-to-day; suggests sharp respect for depleted DET
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans
+13.5 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 +4.5
+8.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Under 226.5 226.5
+4.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 69%
Detroit Pistons -140
  • 62% win prob vs 58% implied; Cade out hurts but NOP depleted bench can't exploit
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
Detroit Pistons
  • Cunningham/Stewart out drops DET by 25% but NOP missing key depth; model projects DET 108-105 win
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 71%
UNDER 214.5 214.5
  • Star absences + combined pace projects 213 total; both teams top-12 defensive ratings w/o usage leaders
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
DET ML +4.6 EV w/Cunningham out but home + NOP injuries; model under 214.5 @71% conf
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