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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.4% EV ALIGNED
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
"Omega 22.5 total vs 7.5 market (+15pp over edge, 24.5 EV); Brewers +1.5 on model pick'em spread"
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
57%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 20.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$650111 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 255 trades Kalshi: 46 trades Largest: $20584
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
33.9%
ML
195 / -195

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 121 / -144 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 125 / -139 -
Value Line - 123 / -155 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-360) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-139) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -131 / 131 132 / -132 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Cole (elbow) is expected to need a "couple more" rehab starts before being activated from the 15-day injured list, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weathers
(SP) day-to-day — The Yankees placed Weathers on the paternity list Wednesday.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Rodon (elbow) is likely on track to return from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut Sunday in Milwaukee, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) out — Lockridge was removed from Friday's game against the Yankees with an apparent right leg/knee injury, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
G
Garrett Mitchell
(CF) day-to-day — Mitchell (illness) isn't in the lineup for Friday's game against the Yankees.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Woodruff is tentatively slated to resume throwing Saturday after undergoing a minor procedure Tuesday to drain fluid from his inflamed right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to progress to facing live pitching and running the bases early next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is with the Brewers in St. Louis after being pulled from his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-360)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jasson Dominguez 10-Day-IL
Angel Chivilli 15-Day-IL
Brandon Lockridge Out
Garrett Mitchell Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 54% Lean
"Omega 22.5 total vs 7.5 market (+15pp over edge, 24.5 EV); Brewers +1.5 on model pick'em spread"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.5%
Line Movement
Current Yankees -1.5 / Brewers +1.5 | Total 7.5 | ML Yankees -132 / Brewers +114
Movement No significant movement detected
+15.2pp edge on total over drives primary value; ML marginal -EV at current juice
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects 11.2-11.2 (total 22.4) vs market 7.5, Bayesian fuses to 65% over 7.5 (+15pp edge, 24.5 EV/100). Brewers +1.5 covers 54% posterior on even Omega spread vs market steam to Yankees -1.5. Extreme whales ($455k)/PM (58.5% away) boost Yankees ML to 57% but -132 juice yields -0.7 EV—pass.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($455k, 54 wallets) on away + strong PM divergence (-5.4%) outweigh weak sharp home edge (0.4%)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
+2.9 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-0.7 EV 57%
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
New York Yankees -132
  • Posterior 56.5% away win vs devigged prior 53.3% (+3.2pp); extreme whale + PM confirm away
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Milwaukee Brewers 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior 53.9% Brewers +1.5 cover vs market 50%; Omega even spread (0.0) vs market -1.5 away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian +15.2pp over edge (65.2% posterior); Omega 22.5 total / MC ~20.4 vs market 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers +1.5: +15.6 EV on 59.8% Pinnacle fair cover prob, whales/ML contrarian but spread edge clear
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