Home › MLB › Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
6 - 1
Final
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
"Phillies -1.5: Sharp money divergence of 12.7% and +42% EV at Bovada make this the clear edge play despite Bayesian disagreement."
EV / $100
+12.7
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
58%
TOTAL under 10.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
42.9%
ML
133 / -133

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -134 / 112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -128 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (275) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 159 / -159 -123 / 123 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Horwitz
(1B) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Wilber Dotel
(RP) 15-day IL — Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 60-day IL — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday that Keller (forearm) is expected to return before the All-Star break, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) 60-day IL — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
6
-
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
1
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

+12.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 65% Sharp Lean
"Phillies -1.5: Sharp money divergence of 12.7% and +42% EV at Bovada make this the clear edge play despite Bayesian disagreement."
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 57%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current PHI -1.5 (-110) / PIT +1.5 (-110), Total 10.5, ML PHI -131 / PIT +109
Movement No significant movement detected
Small edge on Phillies moneyline based on calibrated, but sharp money and whales disagree. Spread offers larger edge via sharp divergence.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is heavily on Phillies spread (-1.5) with a 12.7% edge and extreme whale volume ($1.9M). Bayesian fusion disagrees but model agreement is very low. The +EV analysis shows +42.2% EV on Phillies spread at Bovada, a clear mispricing. Moneyline is a toss-up with small sharp edge on Pirates, but conflicting signals keep it a lean. Total is unplayable due to broken model projections. Data quality is degraded, so confidence is tempered.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 12.7% favoring home, with strong signal. +EV analysis shows +42.2% EV on Phillies spread at Bovada. Whale volume is extreme ($1.9M) on home side. Contradicts Bayesian spread posterior but sharp money is more reliable.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+12.7 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 10.5
-15.2 EV 50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Pittsburgh Pirates 109
  • Sharp money edge of 1.2% favors away moneyline, though small
  • Whale volume is on home, but default to sharp money per protocol
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence of 12.7% on spread with strong signal, plus +42.2% EV on Bovada line
  • Whales also heavily on home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 10.5
  • Bayesian fusion shows over 65.2% but model total is absurd (22.5)
  • Monte Carlo projects under 62.3% at model total, but market total is 10.5
  • No reliable edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model projects 22.5 runs vs market 8.5 — +33.6% EV on the over in a game with no named pitchers and extreme quantitative disagreement
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