WNBA
Las Vegas Aces
Aces
New York Liberty
Liberty
Whale Activity Detected
$67331 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 45 trades
Largest: $4498
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Total
179.0
Edge: +3.5
Win Prob
47.5%
ML
110 / -110
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALas Vegas Aces
New York Liberty
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
-6.9
Moneyline
NEW 270
/
LAS -270
Win Probability
27%
-
73%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty
+4.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Las Vegas Aces
64%
Sharp Lean
"Aces +2.5 at -112: Whale volume ($67K) + Bayesian edge (+4.9pp) + injury overcorrection = sharp value on the road dog"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
53%
Book Implied
57%
Edge
-4.4%
Line Movement
Open
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Movement
No significant movement from open
HOME: New York Liberty missing Satou Sabally (Out) → -6.9% offensive efficiency impact
AWAY: Las Vegas Aces missing Janiah Barker (Out) and Dana Evans (Out) → -17.2% net efficiency impact
AWAY: A'ja Wilson listed Day-To-Day — if she plays reduced minutes or sits, Aces' scoring drops 25%+
AWAY: Aces have lost their last 2 visits to Barclays Center (per H2H pick history)
The Liberty ML at -135 carries negative expected value because our 53.0% win probability is well below the 57.4% breakeven rate. The -4.4% calibrated edge favors the Aces, but the vig on both sides makes neither ML bet positive EV. The best value lies on the spread side, where the Aces +2.5 at -112 gives a win probability edge vs the de-vigged 50% line.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Liberty are -135 home favorites but the Bayesian fusion gives them only a 53.0% win probability, creating a negative EV play on their moneyline. The real edge is on the Aces +2.5 spread at -112: the posterior (54.9%) clears the market 50% by +4.9pp, backed by $67K in whale volume and a 10.3% net injury advantage for the Liberty that may be overpriced in the public's eyes. The under 175.5 (55.2% posterior vs 50%) has a +5.2pp edge but is capped at Lean because totals are the model's weakest market (48.7% WR historically) and WNBA data degradation limits confidence. Wilson's Day-To-Day tag is the key variable — if she's out, the Aces cover becomes riskier but the under becomes much safer.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signals show $67,331 in volume on the AWAY side (66% whale confidence), with 13 profitable polymarket wallets backing the Aces. The Bayesian edge (-4.4pp) also favors the Aces on the ML. However, the line has NOT moved from -2.5, indicating that either sharps are betting Aces +2.5 (not ML) or the market is efficiently pricing in the Aces' injuries. The 17.2% efficiency hit to the Aces is larger than the Liberty's 6.9% hit, which superficially favors the Liberty but may already be baked into the line.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
New York Liberty -135
- No positive edge — Bayesian posterior (53.0%) is well below the 57.4% breakeven required at -135
- Only included for completeness; this is a PASS
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Las Vegas Aces 2.5
- Bayesian fusion posterior gives Aces +2.5 a 54.9% win probability vs the de-vigged market 50% — a +4.9pp edge, supported by whale volume ($67K on away side) and OMEGA independent model
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 175.5
- Bayesian fusion posterior for under 175.5 at 55.2% vs de-vigged market 50.0% — a +5.2pp edge
- OMEGA model projects 179.0 (higher than market 175.5) but the EWMA recent form shows home scoring at 82.7 and away at 94.3, below the seasonal norms driving the 179 projection
- The net injury impact (home -6.9%, away -17.2%) should suppress scoring well below 179
- Combined with a 48.7% historical WR on totals (below break-even), confidence is capped at Lean
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Aces +130 ML: Liberty missing Sabally (-20.7% impact) creates 5.3% Bayesian edge; whale money 66% on Aces – bet early.
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