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Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays
"Under 7.5: model total 7.1 vs 7.5 line (+3.2 EV) on Busch suppression + injured rotations"
EV / $100
-1.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
62%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Tampa Bay Rays

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 107 / -128 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 111 / -122 -
Kambi - 108 / -134 -
Bovada Best Line 3.0 (-410) - -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-158) ↓ - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (-103)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 15-day IL — Pepiot (hip) is set to resume a throwing program this weekend, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 15-day IL — Uceta (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Saturday, John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — The Rays placed Lux on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder impingement.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Walls
(SS) 10-day IL — Walls received a cortisone injection in his right oblique and is expected to be sideline at least 3-to-4 weeks, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Martinez
(SP) day-to-day — Martinez finished Grapefruit League play with a 14.49 ERA and 7:6 K:BB over 13.2 innings.
Day-To-Day
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) out — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Out
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ricardo Genoves
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — The Cardinals placed Dobbins (knee) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson is shut down from throwing in Cardinals camp due to a left flexor strain, Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-410)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Ryan Pepiot 15-Day-IL
Steven Wilson 60-Day-IL
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Lars Nootbaar 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals

+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 65% Sharp Lean
"Under 7.5: model total 7.1 vs 7.5 line (+3.2 EV) on Busch suppression + injured rotations"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current TB -126 / STL +104 | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data available
No edge on Rays ML; vig eats small model disagreement. Total shows mild under lean.
Model: 60.0% win rate | n=10 — DDN 6-4 MLB but 0-1 vs Cardinals; early dataset
FULL ANALYSIS
Rays -126 but model only 52% win prob, no EV after vig. Under 7.5 keys with Busch park factors (avg 7.1 runs) and both teams missing rotation depth (Pepiot IL, Thompson DTD). Cardinals +1.5 has spot value as home dogs in opener (58% historical).
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays
-1.2 EV 65%
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
+1.8 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
+3.2 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Tampa Bay Rays -121
  • Rays superior pitching depth with Pepiot IL but Cardinals losing Nootbaar (key bat) and multiple arms day-to-day
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
St. Louis Cardinals
  • Model projects 4.2-3.8 final (Rays -0.4 spread); Cardinals home value as dog in low-total spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS — UNDER 7.5 7.5
  • Busch Stadium + Cardinals injuries suppress scoring (model 7.9 combined runs, -12% park factor)
About This Analysis

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Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals injuries + Busch Stadium = Under 7.5 (+3.4 EV, model 7.9 runs) despite Rays -121 fave
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