MLS
Columbus Crew
Crew
Red Bull New York
York
Whale Activity Detected
$284725 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 123 trades
Kalshi: 123 trades
Largest: $14700
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
41.4%
ML
141 / -141
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAColumbus Crew
Red Bull New York
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.8
Moneyline
RED 112
/
COL -112
Win Probability
47%
-
53%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Columbus Crew @ Red Bull New York
+18.2 EV
per $100 wagered
over
60%
Lean
"Over 3.5 +21.6 EV (model 7.6 total vs 3.5 line); home ML +11.4 EV w/ whales ($285k extreme)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
40%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-10.2%
Line Movement
Current
Columbus Crew -0.5 (Red Bull New York +0.5 -155 / Columbus Crew -0.5 +115)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on home ML with +4.1pp edge and whale confirmation
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/Dixon-Coles project 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.6) vs 3.5 market line, yielding 63.7% over posterior (+21.6 EV). Home ML +11.4 EV at +180 (39.8% vs 35.7% implied), confirmed by extreme whales ($285k, 92%). Spread value faded by -155 juice on even omega line.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($284,725, 92% confidence, 39 profitable wallets, institutional tier) on Red Bull New York
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
40%
Red Bull New York 180
- Bayesian fusion posterior 39.8% home win vs market 35.7% (+4.1pp); omega ML even vs market -120 away
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Red Bull New York 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market Columbus -0.5 (0.5pt edge); home win+draw ~58.5%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian posterior 63.7% over 3.5 vs market 50% (+13.7pp); omega total 7.5 vs market 3.5, MC projects 6.6
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Red Bulls +141 ML: 47.4% posterior vs 41.5% model (+5.9 EV edge) + $272k extreme whales 93% home
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