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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 1.5
"Over 8.5 shows +15.2pp Bayesian edge and Tigers +1.5 offers +3.9pp, but degraded data demands caution — trust the whale volume on Yankees ML? No, model says negative EV."
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
-3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
50%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$668709 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 141 trades Kalshi: 3 trades Largest: $100000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
35.6%
ML
181 / -181

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

New York Yankees

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 117 / -129 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-146) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value -138 / 138 123 / -123 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Fried (elbow) is expected to begin facing hitters by late June or early July, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Perez on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left orbital fracture, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jack Flaherty
(SP) 15-day IL — Flaherty (ankle) will throw a bullpen session Saturday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 15-day IL — Smith (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Jobe (elbow) is expected to resume facing hitters in live batting practice "in a few weeks," Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-146)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Max Fried 15-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 60-Day-IL
Wenceel Perez 10-Day-IL
Jack Flaherty 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

+3.19 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 55% Lean
"Over 8.5 shows +15.2pp Bayesian edge and Tigers +1.5 offers +3.9pp, but degraded data demands caution — trust the whale volume on Yankees ML? No, model says negative EV."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 57%
Edge -3.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5, Total: 8.5, ML: Home +108 / Away -131
Movement No significant movement detected
Data quality degraded (56%) — 15 of 27 signals available No starting pitcher data — significant uncertainty Injury impact roughly equal on both sides (-7.8% each) Omega total (22.5) vs market total (8.5) — model likely overestimating scoring
Away moneyline at -131 requires 56.7% win probability to break even; our model projects only 53.7%, yielding negative EV. No moneyline bet recommended.
FULL ANALYSIS
Data quality is degraded (56%), with no pitcher info, weather, or sharp book data. The Omega model's total of 22.5 is clearly off, but Bayesian fusion still projects a 65.2% over probability on the market total of 8.5 — a massive +15.2pp edge. Whale signals show $667K on Yankees ML, but our model finds negative EV there. The spread offers a modest edge on Tigers +1.5 (53.9% cover). Proceed cautiously: over 8.5 is the strongest signal, but model error risk is real. Lean Tigers +1.5 as a secondary play.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signals show $667K volume on AWAY side (67% confidence) — extreme institutional money. Prediction market (Kalshi) also favors away at 54.5%. However, no sharp vs public book data available to confirm.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
+3.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-7.0 EV 50%
TOTAL over 8.5
+26.9 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
New York Yankees -131
  • Negative EV — model projects 53.7% win probability vs implied 56.7%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Detroit Tigers 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows Tigers +1.5 cover at 53.9%, edge +3.9pp vs market 50%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion projects 65.2% over 8.5, edge +15.2pp vs market — driven by model consensus despite data gaps
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees ML at -135: Bayesian edge +4.0pp, confirmed by $600K whale volume — lean New York despite missing pitcher data.
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