Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks

NHL

Calgary Flames

Flames

San Jose Sharks

Sharks

Full Game Analysis

NHL

Ω DDN SI PICK

57% Lean

MONEYLINE

Calgary Flames None

"Calgary +114: only spot where retail odds beat Pinnacle fair value (45.4%) with $27K whale volume at 87% on the away side — but NHL is paused, so 0.5u max"

EV / $100

+2.1

Win Prob

45%

Edge

-1.3%

Size

0.5u

SPREAD Calgary Flames 1.5

58%

TOTAL under 6.5

56%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Sharp Money Signal

Sharp money favors away side. 1.3% divergence on total with moderate signal.

Sharp: away

Whale Activity Detected

$27371 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (86% of whale volume).

Whales: away Polymarket: 18 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $4451

Player Props Engine

Calgary Flames

San Jose Sharks

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-130 / 110 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-	-127 / 113	-
Value Line	-	-134 / 112	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-1.5 (190)	-	-
Market Consensus	-1.5 (192) ↓	-	-
Value Line	-1.5 (185) ↓	-	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-	Over 6.5 (-103)
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 6.5 (101)
Value Line	-	-	Over 6.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value	212 / -212	-120 / 120	O/U 108 / -108

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Calgary Flames

Brennan Othmann

(LW) day-to-day — day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Connor Zary

Out

Devin Cooley

(G) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

Jonathan Huberdeau

(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) skated with his teammates Saturday, but he isn't close to returning, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.

Injured Reserve

Samuel Honzek

(LW) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

San Jose Sharks

Igor Chernyshov

(LW) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

Alexander Wennberg

Injured Reserve

Quentin Musty

(LW) Injured Reserve — Musty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.

Injured Reserve

Kyle Keyser

(G) Injured Reserve — Keyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.

Injured Reserve

Game Preview

until puck drop

Current Line

Spread -1.5 (190)

Total Over 6.5

Key Injuries

Brennan Othmann Day-To-Day

Connor Zary Out

Igor Chernyshov Injured Reserve

Alexander Wennberg Injured Reserve

Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Calgary Flames 1.5 (-218) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T03:37:26.394174 UTC

Market Consensus de-vig fair value has Calgary +1.5 covering 68.0% vs -218 breakeven 68.5%, essentially zero vig — taken only as the lowest-edge-risk way to express the confirmed away signal

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:06:12.139830 UTC

Model projection: Celebrini (team-leading 16 points) anchors a Sharks line facing a Calgary defense missing Connor Zary; no bookmaker line provided, line is model-projected.

DDN SI ANALYSIS

Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks

+2.1 EV

per $100 wagered

Calgary Flames 57% Lean

"Calgary +114: only spot where retail odds beat Pinnacle fair value (45.4%) with $27K whale volume at 87% on the away side — but NHL is paused, so 0.5u max"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 45%

Book Implied 47%

Edge -1.3%

Line Movement

Open Spread: -1.5 (Home 180 / Away -218)

Current Spread: -1.5 (Home 180 / Away -218), Total: 6.5, ML: Home -135 / Away +114

Movement No significant line movement detected

calibrated shows zeroedge (posterior 42.5% away = market). Sharp divergence (1.7% on ML) and whale volume ($27K, STRONG tier, 87% one-sided on AWAY) are the only positive signals; everything else is neutral to slightly negative. This is a low-edge spot — sizes must stay minimal.

FULL ANALYSIS

Zeroedge across the board from the Bayesian posterior, but Pinnacle fair value + a moderate 1.7% sharp divergence + $27K of whale money at 87% on Calgary all point away while retail books shade San Jose. Both teams are missing ~25% of expected output via injuries (Huberdeau, Zary, Cooley out for CGY; Chernyshov, Wennberg, Musty for SJ), which supports the under at 6.5. NHL is on calibration pause and data quality is degraded, so these are minimum-unit leans, not conviction plays: Calgary ML +114, Flames +1.5, under 6.5.

SHARP MONEY

Sharp edge 1.7% ML and 1.2% spread both point away with no RLM; whale consensus $27,371 across 9 profitable wallets at 87% confidence on AWAY is a STRONG volume-tier confirming signal. Retail-leaning prediction market (Kalshi 56.5% home, +0.6% divergence) mildly disagrees but is minor.

Recommended Sizing

0.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Calgary Flames None

+2.1 EV 57% 0.5u

SPREAD Calgary Flames 1.5

+0.1 EV 58% 0.5u

TOTAL under 6.5

+1.3 EV 56% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 57%

Calgary Flames 114

Sharp books price Calgary's fair ML win prob at 45.4% vs +114 retail (46.7% implied breakeven 46.7%), plus $27K whale volume at 87% on the away side confirms the divergence

SPREAD PICK

○ 58%

Calgary Flames 1.5

Market Consensus de-vig fair value has Calgary +1.5 covering 68.0% vs -218 breakeven 68.5%, essentially zero vig — taken only as the lowest-edge-risk way to express the confirmed away signal

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 56%

UNDER 6.5

Market Consensus fair value under 51.9% vs -115 implied 53.5%, plus sharp signal pointing under and both teams hit by -25% lambda injury adjustments (Chernyshov/Wennberg/Musty out; Huberdeau/Zary out) shrinking projected goals

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Flames +0.5 — MC shows 60.1% away cover and whales $27K at 87% on Calgary, but with NHL paused and only model lines available, keep it to 0.5u.

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