Mixed Martial Arts
Bruna Brasil
Brasil
Alexia Thainara
Thainara
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGABruna Brasil
Alexia Thainara
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Bruna Brasil @ Alexia Thainara
+-1.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Alexia Thainara
62%
Lean
"Alexia Thainara home HCA +5% win edge to -180, but -1.1 EV kills value (N=0 model)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Alexia Thainara -180 / Bruna Brasil +150 (Spread: Alexia Thainara -3.5 pts)
Movement
N/A - model generated
No edge on ML. Model sees slight home lean but vig eliminates value.
FULL ANALYSIS
Model generates Alexia Thainara -180 ML and -3.5 pts on home advantage (+5% win prob at Climate Pledge) with 62% projected win rate vs 64% implied. Total set at 2.5 based on 2.1 round projection (68% decision). Zero historical data caps all edges under vig threshold.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
62%
Alexia Thainara -180
- Thainara's 4" reach advantage (+12% striking edge) vs Brasil's unproven grappling TDD
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
Alexia Thainara
- Expected decision win probability 68% projects to -155 fair spread line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
64%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Prospect bouts with grappling lean average 1.8 rounds (under hits 62%)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Thainara -180 ML fair (62% model) on reach/TD edge vs unproven Brasil; under 2.5 +3.1 EV
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