Home › Serie A › Fiorentina @ Sassuolo
Serie A
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω DDN SI PICK
56% Lean
56% Lean
MONEYLINE
Fiorentina Fiorentina None
"Fiorentina +130 vs Kalshi's 33% Sassuolo read — only 46% needed, +$3.40 EV on a signal-thin card"
EV / $100
+3.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
+2.5%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Fiorentina -0.5
55%
TOTAL under 3.5
54%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by DDN SI

Fiorentina

Sassuolo

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.2
Moneyline
SAS 103 / FIO -103
Win Probability
49% - 51%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Fiorentina @ Sassuolo
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Fiorentina (+130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:39:31.911058 UTC

Kalshi prices Sassuolo at 33% vs the book's 36.4% home prior — a +3.4pp away-side divergence, and Sassuolo sits 2-2-5 with Adzic (3G/7 matches) carrying a thin attack against a Fiorentina side anchored by de Gea.

Spread: Fiorentina -0.5 (+120) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:39:31.964311 UTC

Away at +0.5/-0.5 with odds 120 mirrors the ML edge but gives win-only payout at a better price than the ML equivalent — same 46% win probability, no push protection, as Sassuolo must be beaten outright.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:39:32.023715 UTC

Team-leading scorer (3 goals in 9 matches) getting an anytime-goals line at a projected 0.5; model projection, no market line available and roster unvalidated, so confidence capped at 60.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Fiorentina @ Sassuolo

+3.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Fiorentina 56% Lean
"Fiorentina +130 vs Kalshi's 33% Sassuolo read — only 46% needed, +$3.40 EV on a signal-thin card"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 44%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Open 0.5
Current 0.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Modest edge on Fiorentina ML at +130: (0.46 × $130) − (0.54 × $100) = +$3.40 per $100. Edge exceeds the 2% vig threshold but is thin given 38% data quality — this is a Lean-tier play only.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sassuolo's market price (36.4% home prior) doesn't match Kalshi's 33% — away side is the only live divergence signal in an otherwise signal-poor card (8/21 feeds, Poisson and ELO both failed). Fiorentina at +130 with a 46% model read gives +$3.40/$100, and the same view maps naturally to away -0.5/+120 with one fewer point of juice. Total 3.5 looks a half-goal rich against two attacks producing under 0.4 goals/match in the supplied leader data — take the under at minimum sizing because totals remain our worst market.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Fiorentina None
+3.4 EV 56% 0.5u
SPREAD Fiorentina -0.5
+3.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 3.5
+3.4 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Fiorentina 130
  • Kalshi prices Sassuolo at 33% vs the book's 36.4% home prior — a +3.4pp away-side divergence, and Sassuolo sits 2-2-5 with Adzic (3G/7 matches) carrying a thin attack against a Fiorentina side anchored by de Gea
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Fiorentina -0.5
  • Away at +0.5/-0.5 with odds 120 mirrors the ML edge but gives win-only payout at a better price than the ML equivalent — same 46% win probability, no push protection, as Sassuolo must be beaten outright
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 3.5
  • Two of Serie A's lowest-output attacks collide — Sassuolo 9 matches led only by Bakola's 2 assists, Fiorentina scoring 3 in 9 from Mastantuono — yet the market prices 3.5 with the over juiced at +150, meaning book strength sits on goals we don't see supported by the supplied scoring data
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Fiorentina at +130 with Kalshi showing 66.5% away vs DraftKings' 43.5% implied — a +23pp gap worth +$25 EV per $100, but only 0.5u given zero model confirmation and unvalidated Serie A record.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700