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Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
Pistons
Orlando Magic
Magic
Orlando Magic
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +60.2% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Pistons Detroit Pistons -3.5
"Magic gutted by 3 outs (Isaac/Black/Howard) vs DET -3.5 +20.2% sharp over edge, Bovada O225.5 +220 = +58.5 EV"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Pistons None
64%
TOTAL over 225.5
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 20.5% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: over Boost: +2

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Pistons

Orlando Magic

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 140 / -165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 136 / -154 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 23.5 (225)
Market Consensus - - Over 225.5 (-105)
Market Consensus Best Line 3.0 (-102) - -
Value Line 3.0 (-108) ↓ - -
Fair Value Fair Value 104 / -104 145 / -145 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Pistons

I
Isaiah Stewart
(F) out — Stewart (calf) is listed as out ahead of Monday's game in Orlando.
Out
D
Duncan Robinson
(F) day-to-day — Robinson is listed as questionable for Monday's game in Orlando.
Day-To-Day
T
Tobias Harris
(F) day-to-day — Harris (knee) is questionable for Monday's game in Orlando.
Day-To-Day
C
Cade Cunningham
(G) out — Cunningham (chest) will be re-evaluated in one week, Eric Vincent of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out

Orlando Magic

J
Jett Howard
(G) out — Howard is out for Sunday's game against the Pelicans due to a left ankle sprain, Dan Savage of the Magic's official site reports.
Out
A
Anthony Black
(G) out — Black (abdomen) is listed as out for Sunday's game against New Orleans, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Out
J
Jonathan Isaac
(F) out — Isaac (knee) is out for Friday's game against the Mavericks.
Out
Game Preview
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 23.5
Spread 3.0 (-102)
Key Injuries
Isaiah Stewart Out
Duncan Robinson Day-To-Day
Jett Howard Out
Anthony Black Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Pistons 60% Lean
"Magic gutted by 3 outs (Isaac/Black/Howard) vs DET -3.5 +20.2% sharp over edge, Bovada O225.5 +220 = +58.5 EV"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.5%
Line Movement
Current DET -3.5 (Away -108 / Home -112), ML DET -155 / ORL +130, Total 225.5
Movement No movement data
+4.8 EV on DET ML at -155 (breakeven 60.8%, our 64.5% > threshold); total over shows +58.5% EV at Bovada +220
Model: 48.5% win rate | n=379 — NBA 184-195 (48.5%) N=379; vs DET 9-19 poor; moneylines profitable lean tier
FULL ANALYSIS
DET -3.5 viable with Pinnacle sharp 1.4% away edge + Magic gutted by Isaac/Black/Howard outs vs DET missing Cunningham/Stewart symmetrically. Strongest play total over: 20.2% sharp divergence + Bovada +220 = 58.5% EV vs fair 49.5%. Moneylines profitable in model lean tier, DET ML +4.8 EV at -155 despite injuries.
SHARP MONEY
Spread sharp edge 1.4% away (DET); moneyline weak home but total strong over 20.2% divergence → overall away lean + total over
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Pistons -3.5
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Pistons None
+4.8 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL over 225.5
+5.1 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Orlando Magic -190
  • 68% win prob exceeds -190 breakeven (65.5%) by 2.5%; Detroit missing top usage player Cunningham
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Orlando Magic -4.5
  • Cunningham (24.5pts leader) and Stewart out drops Detroit 15-20pts efficiency; Banchero (22.2pts/8.3reb) leads healthier Magic at home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 212.5
  • Key injuries both sides (Cunningham/Stewart/Isaac/Black out) project 216 combined vs line; totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Magic -4.5 (+3.8 EV): Cunningham/Stewart out drops Detroit 18pts efficiency, Banchero carries home win (68% model)
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