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MLS
D.C. United
D.C. United
United
Philadelphia Union
Union
Philadelphia Union
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union -0.5
"PHI home ML -120 +3.1 EV on scoring edge (3G vs 1G leaders); data poor but ML tier profitable"
EV / $100
+1.4
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+7.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Union None
58%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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D.C. United

Philadelphia Union

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
2.0
Moneyline
PHI -134 / D.C 134
Win Probability
57% - 43%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
D.C. United @ Philadelphia Union
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

D.C. United @ Philadelphia Union

+1.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Union 57% Lean Raw
"PHI home ML -120 +3.1 EV on scoring edge (3G vs 1G leaders); data poor but ML tier profitable"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.0%
Line Movement
Current PHI -0.5 (-125/-110) | O/U 2.5 | PHI -120 / DCU +300
Movement No significant movement detected
Marginal edge on PHI after adjusting for MLS home advantage, but poor data limits conviction
FULL ANALYSIS
PHI -120 ML offers slim +3.1 EV with 57% our prob vs 54.5% implied, driven by home edge and DC's weak early scoring (1G leader in 7 matches). Spread -0.5 mirrors ML value but juicier price cuts EV to 1.4. Totals avoided beyond lean under due to consistent losing WR across tiers and no pace data.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Union -0.5
+1.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Union None
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.1 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia Union -120
  • Home ML breakeven 54.6%; our 57% prob exceeds by 2.4% on PHI's early scoring edge (3G leaders vs DC 1G)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Philadelphia Union -0.5
  • MLS home teams cover -0.5 at 52% historical rate; PHI leaders show stronger scoring (Baribo 3G/6 matches)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • MLS totals historically underperform at 2.5 (48.7% model WR); low leader goal totals (avg 1.5G/team)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
PHI home edge +4.2 EV ML -120 vs DCU weak attack (1G/7 matches), stable line
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