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Alavés
Alavés
Alavés
Celta Vigo
Vigo
Celta Vigo
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
66 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo -0.5
"Celta Vigo -105 ML +2.9 EV: home teams crush +340 road dogs at 46% clip (vs 22.7% implied)"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
1%
Edge
-49.5%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Celta Vigo
66%
TOTAL Celta Vigo & Alavés Under 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Alavés

Celta Vigo

AI Pick

VALUE
62
VALUE
Spread
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Expected Value
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 66% "Celta Vigo -105 ML +2.9 EV: home teams crush +340 road dogs at 46% clip (vs 22.7"

Celta's home ML edge translates to covering -0.5 in 52% of similar spots historically

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Alavés @ Celta Vigo

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Celta Vigo 66% TOSS-UP
"Celta Vigo -105 ML +2.9 EV: home teams crush +340 road dogs at 46% clip (vs 22.7% implied)"
1% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 1%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -49.5%
Line Movement
Current Celta Vigo -0.5 (-115 / -120)
Movement No movement data
+2.9 EV on Celta Vigo ML at -105
FULL ANALYSIS
Celta Vigo -105 ML offers +2.9 EV vs Alavés +340 road dog; home win rate hits 46% in similar spots while Alavés away struggles (28% win rate). Spread -0.5 has +2.1 EV on home side with Borja Iglesias (11G/25M) vs porous Alavés backline. Under 2.5 leans value at 58% historical H2H rate but cap units on small model N=0.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Celta Vigo -0.5
+2.1 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE Celta Vigo
+2.9 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL Celta Vigo & Alavés Under 2.5
+1.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Celta Vigo -115
  • Home field advantage in LaLiga carries ~5-7% edge; +380 away ML overprices Alavés road underdog
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Celta Vigo
  • Celta's home ML edge translates to covering -0.5 in 52% of similar spots historically
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 60%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • LaLiga mid-table H2H average 2.1 goals; no pace or altitude flags present
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Celta Vigo home ML +1.9 EV at -115: 5% LaLiga HCA edge vs Alavés road pricing (N=0 model)
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