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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.9% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 1.5
"Astros +141 vs -171 SEA juice, omega even spread/12-12 scores = +18 EV"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
60%
TOTAL over 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$950286 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 465 trades Kalshi: 340 trades Largest: $34689
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +171.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
38.3%
ML
161 / -161

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -174 / 143 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -165 / 148 -
Value Line - -167 / 135 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (133) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value 142 / -142 -157 / 157 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

C
Cody Bolton
(RP) day-to-day — Bolton (back) will undergo additional imaging in the near future, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) day-to-day — Pena (knee) is not in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) could face hitters next week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Saturday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) day-to-day — Imai returned to Houston on Saturday and will be examined by team physicians while he contends with right arm fatigue, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 15-day IL — Javier was lifted from Wednesday's start in Colorado after just one inning due to an apparent injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and will be shut down from throwing "for a few weeks."
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) has progressed to throwing a live batting practice session, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Seattle Mariners

M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 10-day IL — Mastrobuoni (calf) went 0-for-2 with a pair of walks in his first rehab game with Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mariners transferred Vargas (lat) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Robles on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right pectoral strain.
10-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) out
Out
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Miller (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Cody Bolton Day-To-Day
Jeremy Pena Day-To-Day
Miles Mastrobuoni 10-Day-IL
Carlos Vargas 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 58% Lean
"Astros +141 vs -171 SEA juice, omega even spread/12-12 scores = +18 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current SEA ML -171 / HOU +141, Run Line est SEA -1.5, Total 7.5
Movement No significant movement
Value on HOU ML +141 (breakeven 41.5%, our 55%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=423 — ML profitable in strong tier, totals losing across board
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega projects dead even 12-12 scores and 0 spread, torching SEA -171 ML value (63% implied vs our 45% home win prob). Bayesian -2.9% edge away but VERY_LOW model agreement and extreme whale volume home cap upside. +EV spread home per Pinnacle but no run line odds; degraded data (no pitchers) forces leans only. MC confirms no edge, stick to ML value.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+4.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+18.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Houston Astros 141
  • Omega ML HOU -161 (61.7% implied) vs market +141 (41.5% implied), Bayesian edge away despite low agreement
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market pricing SEA as heavy favorite, MC margin -0.0
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 7.5
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC 50.9% over at 24 imply market 7.5 undervalues scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Seattle +184 ML +41 EV (49.6% model vs 35% omega-implied) backed by $288k extreme whales at 84%
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