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MLB
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +42.5% EV
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves None
"Braves ML at -132: Bayesian edge +6.7pp, sharp money + whale volume confirm, Perez (2.70 ERA) vs Singer (6.26 ERA) mismatch — 1.5u"
EV / $100
+12.9
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+6.7%
Size
1.5u
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 0.0
65%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1809747 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 632 trades Kalshi: 108 trades Largest: $58000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +132.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
30.8%
ML
225 / -225

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 114 / -136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 118 / -130 -
Value Line - 112 / -139 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-310) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-136) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -128 / 128 124 / -124 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drake Baldwin
(C) 10-day IL — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Farmer
(DH) 10-day IL — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft allowed four runs on one hit and three walks without retiring a batter in the eighth inning of Friday's 7-6 win over Cleveland.
60-Day-IL
R
Rhett Lowder
(SP) 15-day IL — Lowder (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jose Trevino
(C) 10-day IL — Trevino (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday to check on his healing, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
10-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-310)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Spencer Schwellenbach 60-Day-IL
Drake Baldwin 10-Day-IL
Graham Ashcraft 60-Day-IL
Rhett Lowder 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

+12.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 68% Strong
"Braves ML at -132: Bayesian edge +6.7pp, sharp money + whale volume confirm, Perez (2.70 ERA) vs Singer (6.26 ERA) mismatch — 1.5u"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +6.7%
Line Movement
Open ATL -132 / Total 9.5
Current ATL -132 / Total 9.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Away team has superior record (39-19 vs 29-27) Away team has strong road record (22-9) Starting pitcher mismatch: Martin Perez (2.70 ERA) vs Brady Singer (6.26 ERA) Weather: Sunny, 78F, wind 11 mph — favorable for hitting Sharp money divergence: 18.0% edge on away spread with strong signal
Strong positive EV on Braves ML. The calibrated posterior (58.8%) significantly exceeds the market-implied probability (52.1%), yielding a +6.7pp edge. The +EV analysis also shows a +42.5% EV on the Braves spread at Sharp Action, confirming value.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is hammering Atlanta. The Bayesian fusion shows a +6.7pp edge on the Braves ML (58.8% vs 52.1%), confirmed by an 18% sharp divergence on the spread and $1.8M in whale volume. The starting pitcher mismatch is stark: Martin Perez (2.70 ERA) vs Brady Singer (6.26 ERA). The total of 9.5 is absurdly low vs the Omega model's 22.5 projection — even accounting for model overfit, the over has a +15.2pp Bayesian edge. Weather (78F, 11 mph wind out) supports scoring. Take Braves ML as the primary play, over 9.5 as a value lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 18.0% with strong signal. Pinnacle fair value (away 55.4%) aligns with Bayesian posterior (58.8%). Whale signals show extreme volume ($1.8M) on away side. All sharp indicators converge on Atlanta.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+12.9 EV 68% 1.5u
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 0.0
+18.0 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 9.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Atlanta Braves -132
  • Bayesian posterior 58.8% vs market 52.1% = +6.7pp edge; sharp money + whale volume confirm
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Atlanta Braves 0.0
  • Sharp edge 18.0% on away spread; +EV analysis shows +42.5% EV at Bovada
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs market 50.0% = +15.2pp edge; Omega model projects 22.5 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Braves RL +210 at Bovada vs 45.4% fair value is the only actionable edge (+40% EV), backed by $1M whale volume and 18% sharp divergence — but take it now before it gets pulled or limited.
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