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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
4 - 12
Final
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 1.5
"Mets ML +119: sharp 2% edge + Pinnacle fair value de-vig shows +4.2 EV vs retail juice"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
60%
TOTAL under 10.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -155 / 130 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -146 / 135 -
Value Line - -167 / 135 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (240) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (129) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value 136 / -136 -141 / 141 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Soto (calf) remains on track to return during the team's upcoming homestand, which runs April 21-30, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(2B) 10-day IL — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(LF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Chicago Cubs

J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Wicks
(RP) 15-day IL — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.
15-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 60-day IL — Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — The Cubs are expected to activate Boyd (biceps) from the 15-day injured list to start Wednesday's home game versus the Phillies, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Palencia
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cubs placed Palencia on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 15-day IL — Hodge is slated to undergo UCL surgery on his right elbow and will miss the rest of the 2026 season, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Ethan Roberts
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 15-day IL — Harvey (0-1) allowed three runs on two hits and a walk while retiring just two batters in relief to take the loss Friday against the Guardians.
15-Day-IL
P
Phil Maton
(RP) 15-day IL — Maton (0-1) allowed two runs on two hits while retiring two batters in relief to take the loss Tuesday against the Angels. He walked two and struck out one.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Steele (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Austin underwent a patellar tendon debridement procedure on his right knee Tuesday and will be out for "months," Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trent Thornton
(RP) day-to-day — The Cubs signed Thornton (Achilles) to a contract Monday, Tread Athletics reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — Miller (elbow) was placed on the 60-day injured list by the Cubs on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
New York Mets
Mets
4
-
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
12
New York Mets 1.5
58% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 58% Lean Calibrated
"Mets ML +119: sharp 2% edge + Pinnacle fair value de-vig shows +4.2 EV vs retail juice"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: CHC -143 / NYM +119; RL: CHC -1.5 -143; Total: 10.5
Movement No significant movement
Retail +119 > Pinnacle de-vigged fair value (43.6% away); sharp 2% edge on Mets ML
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in Lean/Strong; vs Cubs 19-14 good, vs Mets 11-23 poor
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money + 2% edge on Mets ML vs Pinnacle fair (56.4% home); retail -143 overjuiced on Cubs. PM at 53% home confirms divergence, whales home but default sharp. No pitchers or weather caps edge; high 10.5 total leans under in cool April Chicago (hist 8.4 runs).
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 2.0% on away ML; Pinnacle fair home 56.4% vs retail 58.9% vigged
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 10.5
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
New York Mets 119
  • Sharp 2% edge + Pinnacle fair value shows +EV on +119 vs 43.6% true prob
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Mets 1.5
  • Run line +1.5 covers 58% in MC sims for similar priced dogs; sharp divergence favors away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 10.5
  • 10.5 total inflated for April Chicago (historical avg 8.4 runs); no pace data but high line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cubs +148 ML (52.9% MC vs 40% implied, +31 EV); EXTREME whales confirm vs Mets
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