Home › NHL › Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators
NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
2 - 6
Final
Ottawa Senators
Senators
Ottawa Senators
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning 1.85
"TBL spread +440 EV (Pinnacle fair 65%) + RLM vs public on depleted Ottawa D; sharp side confirmed"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Lightning None
60%
TOTAL under 6.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +135.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
31.4%
ML
219 / -219

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Ottawa Senators

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Lightning

Z
Zemgus Girgensons
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Darren Raddysh
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
P
Pontus Holmberg
(RW) out — out
Out
V
Victor Hedman
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
M
Maxwell Crozier
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
D
Dominic James
(C) Injured Reserve — James (leg) will be sidelined for 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery, Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve

Ottawa Senators

T
Thomas Chabot
(D) out — out
Out
T
Tim Stutzle
(C) out — Stutzle (rest) won't play against New Jersey on Sunday, according to Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site.
Out
J
Jake Sanderson
(D) out — Sanderson won't play in Sunday's game against New Jersey for rest purposes, Julian McKenzie of The Athletic reports.
Out
B
Brady Tkachuk
(LW) out — Tkachuk (rest) won't play against New Jersey on Sunday, per Julian McKenzie of The Athletic.
Out
T
Tyler Kleven
(D) out — out
Out
N
Nick Jensen
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
2
-
Ottawa Senators
Senators
6
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.85
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Lightning 65% Sharp Lean
"TBL spread +440 EV (Pinnacle fair 65%) + RLM vs public on depleted Ottawa D; sharp side confirmed"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current OTT -135 / TBL +114 | Spread TBL +185 / OTT -225 | Total 6.5
Movement RLM on spread (public on home, line favors away)
Ottawa missing 5 D (Chabot, Jensen IR); TBL missing Hedman IR but day-to-day Cirelli/Hagel
+251% EV on TBL spread at Bovada per +EV analysis; sharp RLM confirms
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — NHL 134-139 (49.1% N=273); reduce 55-72% conf by 3pts per tier data
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammered TBL spread (51.5% edge + RLM) vs overjuiced -225 despite even MC 46/45.2 win%; Ottawa missing Chabot/Jensen/4 other D tanks blueline. +251% EV on TBL spread at Bovada but juice caps size; model totals unprofitable across tiers.
SHARP MONEY
51.5% sharp edge on TBL spread + RLM detected; Pinnacle fair value 65.1% TBL cover vs retail -225
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Lightning 1.85
+12.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Lightning None
+3.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.8 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Tampa Bay Lightning -135
  • 60% model prob exceeds -135 breakeven (57.4%) by 2.6%; Sens D decimated (Chabot out) vs Kuch/Stutzle matchup
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5
  • Ottawa missing Chabot/Jensen/Gilbert/Kleven/Yakemchuk (5 D out/IR) = -15% defensive output vs Lightning attack
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 5.5
  • Recent H2H under 6.0 hit (model win); both teams missing D = tighter checking game, proj 5.5 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
TB ML -135 (model) +3.7EV: Sens missing 5 D-men (Chabot out) vs Kuch attack, 60% proj >57% breakeven
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