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NHL
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues
Blues
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +23.9% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -1.5
"Sharp money and whales favor Avalanche -1.5, but the -110 price is thin; the real edge is Bovada's +155 line with +23.9% EV"
EV / $100
+5.5
Win Prob
74%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
50%
TOTAL under 6.5
56%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 11.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$6714 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 7 trades Largest: $1149

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Blues

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -275 / 225 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -271 / 231 -
Value Line - -295 / 235 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (155) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-101) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 106 / -106 -254 / 254 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Blues

A
Alexey Toropchenko
(RW) out — out
Out
T
Tyler Tucker
(D) Injured Reserve — Tucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednesday.
Injured Reserve
F
Felix Trudeau
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
L
Logan Mailloux
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Colorado Avalanche

Z
Zachary L'Heureux
(LW) Injured Reserve — L'Heureux (lower body) won't be available for the start of the 2026-27 campaign, per Aarif Deen of Colorado Hockey Now on Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
L
Logan O'Connor
(RW) Injured Reserve — O'Connor (lower body) won't play at the beginning of the 2026-27 campaign, Aarif Deen of Colorado Hockey Now reports.
Injured Reserve
T
Trent Miner
(G) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
G
Georgii Merkulov
(C) Injured Reserve — Merkulov (undisclosed) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (155)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Alexey Toropchenko Out
Tyler Tucker Injured Reserve
Zachary L'Heureux Injured Reserve
Logan O'Connor Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: St. Louis Blues 1.5 (-105) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-02T20:09:36.067573 UTC

Blues +1.5 at -105 offers a 51.2% breakeven; our model sees a 55% cover probability given equal injury impact and the Avalanche's inflated market price.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-02T23:06:16.992761 UTC

Makar averages ~0.8 assists per game; with top forwards healthy, assist rate should exceed 0.5. Unvalidated roster.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche

+5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 60% Lean
"Sharp money and whales favor Avalanche -1.5, but the -110 price is thin; the real edge is Bovada's +155 line with +23.9% EV"
74% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 74%
Book Implied 74%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -1.5 (-110/-110), Total: 6.5, ML: -285/+230
Movement No significant movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money and whales align on Avalanche -1.5, but the Draft Kings -110 price offers only a marginal edge (model projects 55% cover). The real value is on Bovada's +155 line where +EV exceeds 23%. Moneyline is a hard pass at -285. Total under 6.5 has a slight lean from Pinnacle fair value but is a low-confidence play given historical struggles with totals. Data quality is degraded (67%), so all confidence is reduced by 3 points.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 11.0% on spread favoring home, whale consensus 85% home with moderate volume. However, +EV analysis shows Pinnacle fair value for home spread at 48.6%, creating contradiction. Signal is mixed but leans home.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5
+5.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
50%
TOTAL under 6.5
+1.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Colorado Avalanche -285
  • No edge - market efficient at 74% implied; breakeven 74.0% matches model posterior exactly
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Colorado Avalanche -1.5
  • Sharp money and whale consensus favor home spread; model estimates 55% cover probability vs market 52.4%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
UNDER 6.5
  • Market Consensus fair value under 52.2% vs market 52.4%; slight edge with model projecting 53% under probability
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues +1.5 at +100: Colorado's injuries create a +6% EV edge in a validated NHL spread market.
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