Home › MLS › St. Louis CITY SC @ New York City FC
MLS
St. Louis CITY SC
St. Louis CITY SC
SC
New York City FC
FC
New York City FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis CITY SC St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
"Omega spread 0.0 vs NYC -0.5 market (+0.5pt edge) + STL ML +3.2EV at +320 vs model fair -252"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
50%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis CITY SC None
52%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

St. Louis CITY SC

New York City FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
NEW -100 / ST. -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
St. Louis CITY SC @ New York City FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis CITY SC @ New York City FC

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis CITY SC 64% Sharp Lean
"Omega spread 0.0 vs NYC -0.5 market (+0.5pt edge) + STL ML +3.2EV at +320 vs model fair -252"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Open NYC -0.5 (-140/+100) / 2.5 / NYC -130 / STL +320
Current NYC -0.5 (-140/+100) / 2.5 / NYC -130 / STL +320
Movement No movement detected
No positive EV on home ML; omega spread edge of 0.5pt favors St. Louis cover
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega's 0.0 spread vs market NYC -0.5 creates clear St. Louis +0.5 value with equal 1500 ELO ratings and 6.4-6.4 Poisson expects. ML market wildly off omega's STL -252 fair line (28.4% win prob beats +320 breakeven). Total 13.0 projection obliterates 2.5 market but totals losing across calibration tiers.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
+3.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis CITY SC None
+2.1 EV 52% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+1.9 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
St. Louis CITY SC 360
  • Market -150 implies 60% but omega Poisson/ELO converges at 50% for St
  • Louis, massive value at +360
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market NYC -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on St
  • Louis +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 (10.5pt edge) from Poisson expected 6.4-6.4
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
St. Louis +360 ML (+26.7 EV): omega pick'em vs NYC -150 juice, Poisson 6.4-6.4 totals
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700