Home › MLB › Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.5% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
"Over 9.0 +24 EV (models 20 runs) + PHI ML +5.3pp edge vs BOS -131 juice"
EV / $100
+10.2
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
49%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1052755 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 366 trades Kalshi: 20 trades Largest: $201683
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +131.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
35.9%
ML
178 / -178

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 117 / -140 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 122 / -133 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-330) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-110)
De-Vigged Fair Value -129 / 129 128 / -128 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
15-Day-IL
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
suspension
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) threw off a mound Tuesday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — Anthony (wrist) has yet to resume baseball activities, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Willson Contreras
(1B) day-to-day — Contreras (hand) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Phillies, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-330)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Zach Pop 15-Day-IL
Keaton Anthony Day-To-Day
Garrett Crochet 15-Day-IL
Roman Anthony 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

+10.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 55% Lean
"Over 9.0 +24 EV (models 20 runs) + PHI ML +5.3pp edge vs BOS -131 juice"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.4%
Line Movement
Current Spread: BOS -131 | ML: BOS -131 / PHI +109 | Total: 9.0
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Slight +EV on PHI ML (+1.6%); massive +24.4 on over 9.0; strong +EV on PHI RL per +EV analysis.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows +5.3pp edge on PHI ML (48.6% posterior vs 43.3% implied) with MC 52% away wins and omega line flipping PHI to -178 fav. Total market at 9.0 ignores model avgs of 19.4-22.5 runs amid dual pitching injuries (-8% lambda both). Sharp money hammers away spread (19.3% edge) despite whale/pred mkt home bias—default to sharps + quant.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 19.3% sharp edge on spread away, moderate 1.0% on ML away; Pinnacle fair value diverges heavily toward PHI.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
+10.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+1.6 EV 49%
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 49%
Philadelphia Phillies 109
  • Bayesian posterior 48.6% PHI win vs market 43.3% implied (+5.3pp edge); MC 52.0% away win
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
  • MC sims away covers 52% at 0.0 spread (proj -0.8 BOS), omega spread even vs market BOS fav, sharp 19.3% edge away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 9.0 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 19.4, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
BOS ML -115 (54% our prob, +0.8 EV) on injury edge +1.9%; whales PHI but model/Kalshi consensus holds (N=776 MLB 51.2%)
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE