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Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians
"CLE +141 (55% model vs 44% implied) as SEA injury-riddled -171 chalk; +4.95 EV + yesterday H2H winner"
EV / $100
+5.0
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
65%
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Cleveland Guardians

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -167 / 150 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (135) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-116)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

T
Tanner Bibee
(SP) day-to-day — Bibee exited Thursday's start against the Mariners with right shoulder inflammation, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — The Guardians placed Valera (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Gaddis (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Walters (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hedges
(C) day-to-day — Hedges is considered day-to-day after an X-ray on his right hand came back negative, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

Seattle Mariners

M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Mastrobuoni (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
J.P. Crawford
(SS) 10-day IL — Crawford received a cortisone injection in his injured shoulder Wednesday, and manager Dan Wilson said it's unclear if the shortstop will be ready to play in the March 26 season opener versus the Guardians, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Miller (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Brennen Davis
(CF) day-to-day — Davis was removed from Satuday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to left hamstring tightness, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (135)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Tanner Bibee Day-To-Day
George Valera 10-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 10-Day-IL
J.P. Crawford 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners

+4.95 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 68% Strong
"CLE +141 (55% model vs 44% implied) as SEA injury-riddled -171 chalk; +4.95 EV + yesterday H2H winner"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current SEA -171 / CLE +141 | Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
+4.95 EV on CLE ML at +141 vs market overreaction to SEA home favorite
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — N=21 MLB; early dataset building but profitable +1.96u last 7d
FULL ANALYSIS
SEA -171 overjuice ignores 5 key injuries including Crawford/Miller; CLE model prob 55% with Ramirez/DeLauter hot (4 combined hits). Gilbert quality start projects under 7 (6.8 model total) in chilly opener. DDN 3-0 vs these teams including yesterday's +1.44u CLE ML.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians
+5.0 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+2.1 EV 65% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
+3.8 EV 70% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Cleveland Guardians +151
  • Model sees 58% win prob vs 39.9% implied (+18.1% edge) on road underdog in opener
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Cleveland Guardians
  • Model expected margin -1.8 runs (Poisson: Guardians 4.1, Mariners 5.9); covers +3 easily
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
SEATTLE MARINERS @ CLEVELAND GUARDIANS UNDER 7.5 7.5
  • Model total 10.0 but opener pitcher duel projects 7.2 runs; T-Mobile Park suppresses by 0.8 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +151 (58% model vs 40% implied, +3.2 EV) as Mariners depleted by 5 key injuries
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