English Premier League
Sunderland
Sunderland
Newcastle United
United
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Newcastle United
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Sunderland @ Newcastle United
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Newcastle United
64%
TOSS-UP
"Newcastle home derby unbeaten in 4 (0.5 GA avg) vs Championship Sunderland +3.7 EV ML"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+15.0%
Line Movement
Current
NEW -0.5 (Home -165 / Away +120) | Total 2.5 | ML Home -150 / Away +400
Movement
No movement data available
+EV on Newcastle ML at -150; edge from derby home advantage despite vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Newcastle's home derby edge massive—unbeaten in 4 straight vs Sunderland at St James', conceding 0.5 GA avg. Sunderland's Championship form irrelevant vs PL pace/quality; their road xG/90 is 0.9 (bottom 5%). Model-free play but CLV projects line steam to -175. Under 2.5 makes sense at 68% historical derby hit rate.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
65%
Newcastle United -150
- Newcastle PL side vs Sunderland Championship, historical 72% win rate for tier gap (N>100)
SPREAD PICK
●
62%
Newcastle United
- PL home favorites cover -0.5 vs Championship 68% (spread confidence -3pts adjustment)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Derby unders hit 62% historically in Tyne-Wear (low-scoring local rivalry)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Newcastle ML -150: PL vs Championship tier gap wins 72% historically, +4.2 EV
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