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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 0.0
"Giants ML +100: MC 47% win prob vs 54.5% implied (+3.4 EV) with omega even spread"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
29.7%
ML
237 / -237

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - 100 / -120 ↑ -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Saturday that Wheeler (shoulder) will continue his rehab assignment Wednesday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and will make another minor-league start after that, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
O
Orion Kerkering
(RP) 15-day IL — Kerkering (hamstring) will make the second of back-to-back rehab appearances Wednesday at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Aidan Miller
(SS) day-to-day — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Miller (back) has increased his rehab activities but is not yet swinging a bat, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out

San Francisco Giants

C
Casey Schmitt
(3B) day-to-day — Schmitt (back) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mets, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 15-day IL — Butto will miss the next 2-4 months after undergoing surgery Saturday to remove a blood clot from his right arm, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) threw 20 pitches during his live batting practice in Arizona on Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Zack Wheeler 15-Day-IL
Orion Kerkering 15-Day-IL
Casey Schmitt Day-To-Day
Jose Butto 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 58% Lean
"Giants ML +100: MC 47% win prob vs 54.5% implied (+3.4 EV) with omega even spread"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.0%
Line Movement
Current PHI -120 ML / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
No edge on PHI ML at -120 vs our 47% prob; breakeven 54.5% exceeds model
Model: 53.0% win rate | n=285 — ML spreads profitable lean tier; reduce all conf by 5; props cap 60 unvalidated rosters
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project dead even 12-12 (47% PHI win) vs market -120 PHI, creating value on Giants ML +100. Total hugely discrepant at 8.0 vs model 24.0 but MC under 48% supports market under lean. Wheeler IL hurts PHI; model 53% MLB but overconfident leans and poor vs these teams warrant low conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 0.0
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+3.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia Phillies -243
  • Omega win prob 70.9% from Poisson+ELO blend, Phillies higher ELO rating
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Philadelphia Phillies -0.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Phillies -4.0 spread due to 1550.3 rating vs Giants 1450.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 aligns with expected 12-12 but MLB totals historically profitable only at low confidence tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
ELO Phillies -4 edge vs even Poisson line, but -243 ML kills EV (+0.8% spread value only)
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