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Mixed Martial Arts
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
Dawson
Mateusz Rębecki
Rębecki
Mateusz Rębecki
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Grant Dawson Grant Dawson 0
"Dawson ML +4 EV from $48k strong whale steam (100% conf) vs 50/50 model line"
EV / $100
+1.5
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Grant Dawson None
58%
TOTAL over 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$48600 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 27 trades Largest: $1800

Player Props Engine

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Grant Dawson

Mateusz Rębecki

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
MAT -100 / GRA -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Grant Dawson @ Mateusz Rębecki
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Grant Dawson @ Mateusz Rębecki

+1.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Grant Dawson 55% Lean
"Dawson ML +4 EV from $48k strong whale steam (100% conf) vs 50/50 model line"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: ML Grant Dawson -108 / Mateusz Rębecki +108, Spread 0, Total 2.5 rounds
Movement No movement (no market)
Slight +EV on Dawson ML from whale signal vs even model prior
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior even at 50/50 but $48k strong whale volume (100% on Dawson) creates +2% edge for away ML. Grappler vs grappler projects decision (over 2.5 rounds 65% model sims). Poor data caps confidence; MMA whale signals +3 conf adjustment offset by -7 data penalty.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume ($48,600, strong tier) at 100% confidence on away (Dawson)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Grant Dawson 0
+1.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Grant Dawson None
+4.0 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Grant Dawson -108
  • Strong whale consensus ($48k volume tier) in 50/50 model matchup
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Grant Dawson 0.0
  • Whale steam provides marginal edge in model even spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 2.5
  • Grappling-heavy matchup (Dawson wrestler vs Rebecki sambo) projects decision
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Strong $48k whale steam (100%) on Dawson in 50/50 model spot, +1.5 EV spread lean
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