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Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0
"PIT ML -110 +4.8 EV (sharp 13% spread edge + DDN 3-0 H2H sweep yesterday)"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
65%
TOTAL over 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +110.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
37.2%
ML
169 / -169

Player Props Engine

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Baltimore Orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -106 / -104 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (190) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-104)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 199 / -199 -101 / 101 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) has gone 5-for-18 (.278) with two doubles, three RBI, one run scored and through five minor-league rehab appearances with Triple-A Norfolk.
10-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 15-day IL — Eflin is traveling to receive a second opinion for the MRI he underwent on his right elbow Wednesday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — The Orioles transferred Westburg (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Kittredge
(RP) 15-day IL — Kittredge (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Maverick Handley
(C) day-to-day — Handley was removed in the bottom of the fifth inning of Triple-A Norfolk's 6-2 loss to Nashville on Sunday after being hit in the left ankle by a pitch, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — Crouse (lat) struck out two and allowed two earned runs on three hits over an inning of relief Saturday in the Orioles' 8-6 win over the Pirates in his Grapefruit League debut.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keegan Akin
(RP) 10-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Akin (adductor) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — The Orioles placed Kjerstad on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Payton Eeles
(2B) day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (190)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Zach Eflin 15-Day-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda Day-To-Day
Chris Devenski Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 67% Sharp Lean
"PIT ML -110 +4.8 EV (sharp 13% spread edge + DDN 3-0 H2H sweep yesterday)"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current PIT -110 / BAL even (ML pick'em)
Movement No movement data
Pittsburgh ML at -110 offers +4.8 EV vs our 55% prob; Pirates 3-0 yesterday H2H confirms edge over breakeven 52.4%
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — MLB 115-103 (52.8%) N=218; vs BAL 12-6 strong, PIT even; tier data shows overconfidence 13-21pt gaps
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammered PIT spread (13% edge, +54% EV Bovada +360) while yesterday DDN swept PIT ML/spread/over vs BAL. Omega Poisson 12-12 (total 24) crushes 8.5 market but totals losing across tiers—lean small. PIT ML +EV at 55% model prob vs -110.
SHARP MONEY
13% sharp edge on PIT spread (+360 EV at Bovada fair value 33.6% vs retail), strong divergence signal +2pt confidence boost
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0
+5.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+4.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 8.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Baltimore Orioles -124
  • 60% model prob exceeds -124 breakeven (55.4%) by 4.6%; calibrated up on profitable Strong tier ML (58.7%)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Baltimore Orioles -3.0
  • Model projects Orioles win by 3.8 runs based on superior early lineup depth (O'Hearn .421) vs Pirates pitching injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 7.5
  • Omega model total 7.2; Pirates Keller 0.00 ERA + early April pitcher acclimation suppresses runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orioles ML -124 (+3.7 EV): 60% model >55.4% breakeven, Pirates pitching depleted (Jones IL) vs O'Hearn .421 tear
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