Home › MLB › Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
9 - 0
Final
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves -1.5
"Braves ML/RL w/ extreme $227K whales (80%) + 17.2% sharp spread edge & +43.7% EV, our 58% vs 54% implied"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
65%
TOTAL under 9.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -101 / -119 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 102 / -110 -
Value Line - -106 / -118 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-370) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-158) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -151 / 151 106 / -106 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) day-to-day — Acuna (hand), who was removed from Monday's game against Washington after being hit by a pitch twice, is being considered day-to-day after X-rays returned negative.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) is slated to move his rehab assignment from High-A Rome to Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) is scheduled to make the second start of his rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Gwinnett, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Saturday that Kim (finger) has resumed taking batting practice, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) day-to-day — Realmuto (back) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Cubs.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Wheeler (shoulder) struck out four and allowed four earned runs on six hits and one walk across four innings Sunday in his rehab start with Double-A Reading.
15-Day-IL
J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Saturday to record his fifth save of the season in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Bowlan
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies acquired Bowlan from the Royals on Friday in exchange for Matt Strahm, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Lazar (oblique) is throwing bullpen sessions in Clearwater, Florida, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Atlanta Braves
Braves
9
-
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
0
Atlanta Braves -1.5
64% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 64% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Braves ML/RL w/ extreme $227K whales (80%) + 17.2% sharp spread edge & +43.7% EV, our 58% vs 54% implied"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-118) / Phillies +1.5; ML: Phillies -102 / Braves -118; Total: 9.5
Movement No significant movement
+5.1 EV on Braves ML at -118; exceeds breakeven 54.1% by 3.9%
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — MLB via overall DDN 51.8%; favor ML over totals (losing)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money 17.2% edge + extreme whale volume $227K (80% away) on Braves despite near even ML; +43.7% EV on Braves RL. Injuries equal -8% both, no pitchers/weather hurts totals. Calibration shows ML profitable, lean away side.
SHARP MONEY
17.2% sharp edge on spread away + moderate 1.1% ML edge; strong signal
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves -1.5
+12.4 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+5.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 9.5
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Atlanta Braves -118
  • Whales extreme volume $227K (80% confidence) on away + sharp ML edge 1.1%
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Atlanta Braves -1.5
  • +43.7% EV on away spread per +EV analysis (fair value away cover 39.4% vs retail odds)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 9.5
  • Totals historically losing (48.7% WR), fair value near 50/50 but injury impacts reduce scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies +236 ML +47 EV (our 44% >> omega 30%); Braves -0.0 spread (MC 48.4% cover); under 24.0 70% MC
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