Home › MLS › Minnesota United FC @ Columbus Crew
MLS
Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC
FC
Columbus Crew
Crew
Columbus Crew
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 0.5
"Minnesota +0.5 (omega even line) +94 EV ML edge at +310, over 2.5 +14.9pp (model total 7.5 vs 2.5)"
EV / $100
+10.0
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota United FC None
60%
TOTAL over 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
41.9%
ML
138 / -138

Player Props Engine

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Minnesota United FC

Columbus Crew

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.1
Moneyline
COL 101 / MIN -101
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Minnesota United FC @ Columbus Crew
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Minnesota United FC @ Columbus Crew

+10.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota United FC 58% Lean
"Minnesota +0.5 (omega even line) +94 EV ML edge at +310, over 2.5 +14.9pp (model total 7.5 vs 2.5)"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.6%
Line Movement
Current Columbus Crew -0.5 (-140) / Minnesota United FC +0.5 (+100); ML Columbus Crew -135 / Minnesota United FC +310; Total 2.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
+94 EV on Minnesota United FC ML at +310 due to 4.9pp calibrated edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line even spread and 7.5 total vs market -0.5/-2.5 shows clear edges to Minnesota +0.5 (0.5pt discrep) and over (5pt discrep). Bayesian fuses to +4.9pp away ML edge and +14.9pp over 2.5, backed by MC 3.3-3.2 proj and Dixon-Coles 6.4 goals exp despite LOW model agreement. No injuries/situational flags, cool weather minor under factor but model overwhelms.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota United FC 0.5
+10.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota United FC None
+94.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 2.5
+23.9 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Minnesota United FC 310
  • Bayesian posterior 47.4% away win vs market prior 42.5% (+4.9pp edge at +310 payout)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Minnesota United FC 0.5
  • Omega independent line at even spread (0.0) vs market Columbus -0.5, providing 0.5pt edge to away cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 2.5
  • Per-bet posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge); Omega total 7.5 and MC proj 6.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Minnesota +0.5 (omega even line) +94 EV ML edge at +310, over 2.5 +14.9pp (model total 7.5 vs 2.5)
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