Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Hailey Cowan @ Alice Pereira
Mixed Martial Arts
Hailey Cowan
Hailey Cowan
Cowan
Alice Pereira
Pereira
Alice Pereira
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Alice Pereira Alice Pereira -1.5
"Pereira grappling edge (68% TDD vs 52%) projects +4.8 EV ML at -175; Cowan 2-4 as dog"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
67%
Edge
+17.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Alice Pereira None
67%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Hailey Cowan

Alice Pereira

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
ALI -100 / HAI -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Hailey Cowan @ Alice Pereira
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Hailey Cowan @ Alice Pereira

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Alice Pereira 62% Lean
"Pereira grappling edge (68% TDD vs 52%) projects +4.8 EV ML at -175; Cowan 2-4 as dog"
67% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 67%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +17.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Alice Pereira -180 / Hailey Cowan +150
Movement N/A (model-generated)
+4.8 EV on Pereira ML at model -175; breakeven 63.6%, our prob exceeds by 3.4%
FULL ANALYSIS
Pereira's 68% TDD crushes Cowan's 52% defense—projects to 4.2min control time and 67% win prob. Cowan volume striking (47 S/S avg) faces Pereira's 62% defense but grappling mismatch too steep. Model lines: Pereira -175 ML (vs market open N/A), under 2.5 rounds at 58% prob.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Alice Pereira -1.5
+2.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Alice Pereira None
+4.8 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Alice Pereira -180
  • Pereira's TDD defense (68%) neutralizes Cowan's grappling; 67% model win prob vs 64% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Alice Pereira -3.5
  • Model projects Pereira 1.2pt decision edge from superior striking volume
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Both fighters prefer decisions; model projects 2.1 total rounds (under bias in grappling matchups)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pereira ML -180 (omega_model): 67% win prob vs 64% breakeven on TDD/reach edges (+4.2 EV)
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