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NBA
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
Jazz
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +53.2% EV
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -23.5
"OKC -23.5 (74% conf) as Jazz lose 6 core players; sharp 18% over edge on 238.5 (+5.1 EV)"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
96%
Edge
+46.5%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder None
55%
TOTAL over 238.5
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 19.3% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +2

Player Props Engine

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Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -8000 / 1400 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -5844 / 2656 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 22.5 (200)
Market Consensus - - Over 238.5 (-111)
Market Consensus Best Line -23.0 (-113) - -
Value Line -23.0 (-112) ↓ - -
Fair Value Fair Value -107 / 107 -4925 / 4925 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

E
Elijah Harkless
(G) out — Harkless (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game versus Oklahoma City.
Out
K
Keyonte George
(G) out — George (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Oklahoma City.
Out
I
Isaiah Collier
(G) out — Collier (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game against Oklahoma City.
Out
L
Lauri Markkanen
(F) out — Markkanen (hip) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.
Out
J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) out — Nurkic is scheduled to undergo season-ending nose surgery Wednesday, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
J
Jaren Jackson Jr.
(F) out — Jackson was diagnosed with a localized PVNS growth in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
W
Walker Kessler
(C) out — Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.
Out

Oklahoma City Thunder

T
Thomas Sorber
(C) out — The Thunder announced Friday that Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout, NBA reporter Marc Stein reports.
Out
Game Preview
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 22.5
Spread -23.0 (-113)
Key Injuries
Elijah Harkless Out
Keyonte George Out
Thomas Sorber Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Oklahoma City Thunder 74% High Edge
"OKC -23.5 (74% conf) as Jazz lose 6 core players; sharp 18% over edge on 238.5 (+5.1 EV)"
96% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 96%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +46.5%
Line Movement
Current OKC -23.5 (-108/-112) | O/U 238.5 | ML OKC -5000 / UTA +1800
Movement RLM detected on spread (public on OKC, line favors away) and total
Jazz missing 6 players including Markkanen (star), George (23.6 PPG), Collier (7.2 APG), Nurkic No rest/travel flags
ML -5000 breakeven 98.0%; our 96.5% falls short by 1.5% after vig. Spread shows +EV on Jazz side vs Pinnacle fair (-101), but model projects OKC win by 28.
Model: 47.8% win rate | n=343 — NBA 47.8% (N=343); reduce 63-72 conf by 5pts per tier data; high edge (73+) calibrated at 72%
FULL ANALYSIS
Jazz gutted missing Markkanen (star), George (23.6 PPG), Collier/Nurkic/Harkless—projects OKC 128-100 blowout covering -23.5 easily. Sharp RLM + 18% total over edge (Pinnacle 51% vs retail) screams over 238.5 with +48% EV at Bovada +190. ML -5000 juice kills ROI despite 96.5% prob.
SHARP MONEY
RLM on spread (sharp edge 1.4% away) + strong total over signal (18.1% edge); spread sharp side Jazz despite public on OKC
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Oklahoma City Thunder -23.5
+4.8 EV 74% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder None
-3.2 EV 55%
TOTAL over 238.5
+5.1 EV 70% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Oklahoma City Thunder -4000
  • Breakeven 97.6% exceeds our 92% projection; heavy juice destroys ROI even on mismatch
SPREAD PICK
● 74%
Oklahoma City Thunder -21.5
  • Utah missing 8 rotation players (Markkanen/George/Collier/Nurkic OUT) = -25% net rating impact; OKC healthy stars project 125-98 win
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
OVER 239.5
  • OKC pace pushes total despite Utah injuries; model projects 223 but tier data shows lean totals profitable (58%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OKC -21.5 (+5.1 EV): Utah's 8 key OUTs = -25% net rating blowout projects 125-98
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