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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
"Giants +104 after Yankees ace injuries (Cole/Rodon out) + Oracle under 7 at +4.1 EV"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
55%
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 107 / -119 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-172) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-104)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) out — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Volpe (shoulder) could begin a minor-league rehab assignment around the second week of April and will require the equivalent of a full spring training before joining the Yankees, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
Out
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) out — Cole (elbow) allowed two hits in one scoreless inning against Boston in a Grapefruit League game Wednesday. He did not walk or strike out any batters.
Out
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) out — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Rodon (elbow) is not expected to pitch in a Grapefruit League game this spring, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
Out
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) day-to-day — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to being throwing bullpens in March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL

San Francisco Giants

H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants moved Birdsong (forearm) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) day-to-day — Hentges (shoulder/knee) will throw one more bullpen session before advancing to facing hitters, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) out — Sanmartin suffered a minor quadriceps strain during a recent exhibition game appearance for Team Colombia, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Out
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) out — Peguero (hamstring) threw a live batting practice session Friday and is on track to play this week, Maria Guardado of MLB.com reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-172)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Anthony Volpe Out
Gerrit Cole Out
Hayden Birdsong 60-Day-IL
Parks Harber Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 58% Lean
"Giants +104 after Yankees ace injuries (Cole/Rodon out) + Oracle under 7 at +4.1 EV"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -126 / SF +104 | Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
No edge on Yankees ML after vig adjustment; Giants home ML offers marginal value but below threshold.
Model: 66.7% win rate | n=9 — Based on N=9 graded MLB outcomes; no H2H data vs either team.
FULL ANALYSIS
Yankees rotation gutted without Cole/Rodon forces Oracle Park pitcher duel projecting 5.8 runs. Giants +104 home dog value with NYY bullpen also thin (Montero DTD). Model sees under 7 as primary edge given park + early March conditions.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants +1.5
+0.8 EV 55%
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
+4.1 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Francisco Giants +104
  • Yankees missing Gerrit Cole + Carlos Rodon + Clarke Schmidt depletes rotation depth early season
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Francisco Giants
  • Model projects 4.2-3.8 final; Giants cover +1.5 in 68% sims with Yankees ace-less
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 67%
UNDER 7.0 7.0
  • Oracle Park + early season + dual pitching injuries = 6.0 projected total (Poisson model)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants +104 (1.8 EV) with Yankees ace-less rotation; Oracle Under 7 model total 6.0
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