Home › MLB › New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
0 - 6
Final
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Yankees ML +2.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; Over 7.5 w/ MC 17.7 total (+15pp, 65% posterior)"
EV / $100
+5.6
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
56%
TOTAL over 7.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
33.9%
ML
195 / -195

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

New York Yankees

Milwaukee Brewers

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 100 / -120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 105 / -114 -
Value Line - 106 / -132 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-400) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-159) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -152 / 152 110 / -110 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Cole (elbow) is expected to need a "couple more" rehab starts before being activated from the 15-day injured list, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weathers
(SP) day-to-day — The Yankees placed Weathers on the paternity list Wednesday.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Rodon (elbow) is likely on track to return from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut Sunday in Milwaukee, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) out — Lockridge was removed from Friday's game against the Yankees with an apparent right leg/knee injury, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
G
Garrett Mitchell
(CF) day-to-day — Mitchell (illness) isn't in the lineup for Friday's game against the Yankees.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Woodruff is tentatively slated to resume throwing Saturday after undergoing a minor procedure Tuesday to drain fluid from his inflamed right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to progress to facing live pitching and running the bases early next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is with the Brewers in St. Louis after being pulled from his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
New York Yankees
Yankees
0
-
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
6
New York Yankees -1.5
60% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

+5.6 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 60% Lean
"Yankees ML +2.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; Over 7.5 w/ MC 17.7 total (+15pp, 65% posterior)"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 (-126) / MIL +1.5 (+105); Total 7.5 (-110); ML MIL +104 / NYY -126
Movement No significant line movement detected
Equal injury impact (-8.7% MIL, -9.7% NYY) Fried (2.39 ERA) slight edge over Misiorowski (2.84 ERA); both lambda -15%
+2.2pp calibrated edge on Yankees ML vs devigged market prior; massive +15.2pp on over 7.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Yankees 53.2% ML (edge +2.2pp vs devig prior), confirmed by extreme $457k whale volume (institutional tier) and 20.4% sharp spread divergence to away. Total 7.5 vs MC 17.7 / omega 22.5 screams +15.2pp over edge despite historical total weakness. Equal injuries, Fried slight SP edge but low market total unexploited; MC high edge conf on away 54%.
SHARP MONEY
20.4% sharp edge on spread away + 1.2% ML away; strong signal favoring Yankees
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+5.6 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+1.8 EV 56% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+13.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
New York Yankees -126
  • +2.2pp Bayesian posterior edge (53.2%) vs devigged market prior; MC 54% away win
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • +56.1% EV on Yankees -1.5 per +EV analysis vs Pinnacle fair value (41.1% cover); 20.4% sharp divergence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 7.5
  • +15.2pp Bayesian edge on over (65.2% posterior); MC proj 17.7 total, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers ML +1.8pp Bayesian edge vs Kalshi despite extreme whales Yankees; MC 71% under 22.5
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