WNBA
Chicago Sky
Sky
Portland Fire
Fire
Whale Activity Detected
$5162 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 9 trades
Largest: $624
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAChicago Sky
Portland Fire
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.4
Moneyline
POR 106
/
CHI -106
Win Probability
49%
-
51%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Chicago Sky @ Portland Fire
+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Portland Fire
58%
Lean
"CHI injury massacre (-24%) vs POR (-7%) nets +17.2% home edge, +EV on Portland +4.5 & ML"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
42%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-8.0%
Line Movement
Open
Not available
Current
CHI -4.5 (Portland +4.5 -102 / CHI -4.5 -118) | ML Portland +170 / CHI -205 | Total 160.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Injury advantage: +17.2% net to home (CHI -24.1% vs POR -6.9%)
+EV on Portland ML due to injury-adjusted prob exceeding implied 37%; spread EV +4.8 on +4.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Chicago Sky hit hard by injuries (-24.1% lambda: Vandersloot/Carrington out, multiple DTD) vs Portland's minor dip (-6.9% Samuelson out), netting +17.2% home edge that market hasn't fully priced into -4.5/+170. Posterior neutral at 37% home win but situational overrides for marginal value. Moderate whales on CHI but poor data (38%) caps all to leans; totals weak historically.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($5,162, 60% confidence) on Chicago from 2 profitable wallets
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Portland Fire 170
- Adjusted home win prob 42% > market 37% implied from injuries hitting CHI harder (-24% vs -7%)
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Portland Fire 4.5
- Net injury impact +17.2% to Portland (CHI -24% from multiple outs like Vandersloot/Carrington) covers the 4.5 spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 160.5
- Injuries reduce scoring lambda (POR -6.9%, CHI -24.1%), WNBA totals historically tough (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
CHI injury massacre (-24%) vs POR (-7%) nets +17.2% home edge, +EV on Portland +4.5 & ML
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