Serie A
Juventus
Juventus
AC Milan
Milan
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAJuventus
AC Milan
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-4.0
Moneyline
AC 178
/
JUV -178
Win Probability
36%
-
64%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Juventus @ AC Milan
+-10.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Juventus
52%
Lean
Raw
"Juventus -145 ML (+2 EV, 61% vs 59% breakeven); Milan-Juve derbies avg 2.1 goals <2.5 line"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
61%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+11.0%
Line Movement
Current
Juventus -0.5 (-190) / AC Milan +0.5 (+135); ML Juventus -145 / AC Milan +190; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected.
Marginal +EV on Juventus ML; spread too juiced (-190 requires 65.5% breakeven).
FULL ANALYSIS
Juventus -145 ML offers slim +2 EV with 61% prob vs market 59% amid data drought. Derby history (Juventus 55% win rate N=20) and stable line support away side. Under 2.5 projects best total value at 54% prob (avg 2.1 goals in H2H). Spread PASS due juice.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Juventus -145
- 61% model prob exceeds -145 breakeven (59.2%) by 1.8%; Juventus superior in recent H2H
SPREAD PICK
○
52%
Juventus -0.5
- Same outcome as ML but -190 juice creates negative EV vs -145 ML price
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
57%
UNDER 2.5
- Milan-Juve derbies average 2.1 goals (N=22); defensive matchup projects 2.3 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
JUV -0.5 +135 mispriced vs ML -145 (+41 EV at 60% proj); low goal threats seal under.
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