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Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets
Nets
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Brooklyn Nets Brooklyn Nets +11.5
"Curry/Porter out drops total proj to 208.2 (-7.3 EV edge) + Nets +11.5 value vs overjuiced GS ML"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
78%
Edge
+28.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Golden State Warriors
65%
TOTAL Under 215.5 215.5
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Brooklyn Nets

Golden State Warriors

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -625 / 430 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -599 / 450 -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 23.5 (175)
Pinnacle - - Over 216.0 (-110)
Pinnacle -11.5 (-113) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Brooklyn Nets

N
Noah Clowney
(F) out — Clowney (wrist) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Warriors, Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com reports.
Out
D
Danny Wolf
(F) out — Wolf (ankle) won't play Wednesday against the Warriors, Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com reports.
Out
N
Nolan Traore
(G) out — Traore is out for Wednesday's game against the Warriors for rest purposes, Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com reports.
Out
M
Michael Porter Jr.
(F) out — An MRI confirmed a left hamstring strain for Porter and he will be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks.
Out
E
Egor Demin
(G) out — Demin underwent a non-surgical procedure to address plantar fasciitis in his left foot, and there's hope he will make a full recovery in time for NBA Summer League, Brian Lewis of the New York Post reports
Out
D
Day'Ron Sharpe
(C) out — Sharpe has been diagnosed with an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his left thumb and will require season-ending surgery, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out

Golden State Warriors

S
Seth Curry
(G) out — Curry (thigh) won't play Wednesday against Brooklyn.
Out
Q
Quinten Post
(C) out — Post (foot) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Out
A
Al Horford
(C) out — Horford (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Brooklyn.
Out
M
Moses Moody
(G) out — Moody has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
S
Stephen Curry
(G) out — Curry (knee) will not play Wednesday against the Nets, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
Out
J
Jimmy Butler III
(F) out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Out
Game Preview
Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 23.5
Spread -11.5 (-113)
Key Injuries
Noah Clowney Out
Danny Wolf Out
Seth Curry Out
Quinten Post Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Brooklyn Nets +11.5 68% Strong
"Curry/Porter out drops total proj to 208.2 (-7.3 EV edge) + Nets +11.5 value vs overjuiced GS ML"
78% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 78%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +28.0%
Line Movement
Current GS -11.5 (-110) / BKN +11.5 (-110) | O/U 215.5 | ML GS -575 / BKN +425
Movement No movement data available
No edge on GS ML due to excessive juice; Nets +11.5 offers marginal value at 38% model win prob vs 47.6% implied
Model: 75.0% win rate | n=16 — Based on N=16 graded NBA outcomes; strong recent form but unproven here
FULL ANALYSIS
GS -11.5 overprices depleted Nets who lose Porter/Demin but retain Claxton rim protection; Curry out caps Warriors at 106.8 proj despite Butler/Podziemski step-up. Model sees 208.2 total vs 215.5 line (6.3pt edge). Nets +11.5 covers 38% with garbage time buffer.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Brooklyn Nets +11.5 +11.5
+3.2 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE Golden State Warriors
-1.8 EV 65%
TOTAL Under 215.5 215.5
+5.1 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Golden State Warriors -135
  • Warriors home court + Draymond Green anchoring depleted roster vs Nets missing Porter Jr/Mann/Clowney
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Golden State Warriors
  • Model expected score Warriors 106-103; home advantage persists even without Curry/Butler
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 69%
UNDER 208.5 208.5
  • Curry/Butler/Porter out drops combined pace 8-10%; model projects 209 total but injury adjustment -6pts
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Curry/Butler/Porter out drops pace -6pts; Warriors +2.8EV ML home vs depleted Nets (model 106-103)
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