Home › MLB › Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
4 - 1
Final
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays None
"Toronto ML +129 has +22.4 EV as OMEGA/MC project coinflip vs -156 market juice, LAD no Betts"
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
64%
TOTAL over 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
25.4%
ML
294 / -294

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Los Angeles Dodgers

Toronto Blue Jays

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Betts (oblique) said Monday that he already feels "light years ahead of where I thought I was going to be," Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts told reporters Wednesday that Snell (shoulder) will "likely" face hitters once the Dodgers return to Los Angeles from their upcoming six-game road trip, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took on-field batting practice Saturday and is progressing well, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Tuesday that Ponce will undergo surgery to repair a torn right ACL, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk underwent surgery Tuesday to have a screw inserted into his fractured left thumb and is expected to be sidelined about six weeks, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) is scheduled to face hitters in live batting practice again Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Yesavage
(SP) 15-day IL — Yesavage (shoulder) is slated to make his second rehab start Thursday with Single-A Dunedin, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(3B) 10-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Barger on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a left ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 15-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw off a mound Saturday, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 15-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
4
-
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
1
Toronto Blue Jays None
58% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays 58% Lean
"Toronto ML +129 has +22.4 EV as OMEGA/MC project coinflip vs -156 market juice, LAD no Betts"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current LAD -156 / Toronto +129 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
+22.4 EV on Toronto ML at +129 vs our 46% projection (market overprices LAD by 15%)
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 172-150 (N=322), 15-9 vs LAD; reduce confidence across tiers per overconfidence gaps
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA projects 12-12 scores (total edge +16.5) vs market 7.5, MC coinflip win probs contradict -156 LAD pricing for +22 EV on Toronto ML. LAD perfect 4-0 away but no Mookie Betts, TOR missing rotation depth yet home 4-3 with Gausman 0.75 ERA. Yesterday DDN hit LAD ML/spread but whiffed under—model vs LAD 15-9 supports fade.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto Blue Jays None
58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Toronto Blue Jays None
+22.4 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL over 7.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Toronto Blue Jays 255
  • Model win prob 46.3% vs -255 implied 71.8% requires only 28.2% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Toronto Blue Jays 0.0
  • MC sims show 46.3% home cover vs 45.8% away on even spread (SE 0.5%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 47.9% under vs 44.4% over on 24.0 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Jays ML +255 (46% model vs 28% breakeven) w/ Betts out + even MC spreads; fade -255 juice
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