WNBA
Connecticut Sun
Sun
75
-
106
Final
New York Liberty
Liberty
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: +7.0
Total
179.0
Edge: +19.5
Win Prob
56.5%
ML
-130 / 130
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreConnecticut Sun
New York Liberty
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty
+25.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Connecticut Sun
62%
Lean
"Sun +9.5 +25EV: Omega -2.5 vs mkt -9.5, equal injuries mispriced; over 159.5 +4.9pp edge to 179 proj"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.0%
Line Movement
Current
NY -9.5 (Home -115 / Away -105) | Total 159.5 | ML Home -600 / Away +440
Movement
No significant movement
Away spread +9.5 offers +25 EV per 100; market -9.5 vs Omega -2.5 = 7pt edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Market has NY -9.5 on injury panic but both sides -25% hit equally; Omega -2.5/179 total shows 7pt spread +19.5pt total edge to Sun side. MC 64% Sun +9.5 cover (proj +4.3 margin), whales home $82k but model posterior away ML edge +12.9pp. Decomposed ratings 203 crushes 159.5 O/U.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume $82k (6 wallets, 68% conf) on home; no Pinnacle/RLM data
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
27%
Connecticut Sun 440
- Away posterior 27.2% vs market 18.5% implied (+8.7pp edge); heavy juice on home kills value there
SPREAD PICK
○
62%
Connecticut Sun 9.5
- Omega spread NY -2.5 vs market -9.5 (7pt edge); MC proj margin +4.3 home, ~64% away cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
OVER 159.5
- Over posterior 54.9% (+4.9pp edge); Omega total 179 vs market 159.5 (19.5pt gap), decomposed ratings 203
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Injuries hit NY harder (-25% vs Sun -20.7%); model close game 91-88, Sun +15.5 +46 EV
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